Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Which states will Trump visit before the midterms?

Name: Which states will Trump visit before the midterms?
End: 2026-11-03T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$21.57K

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Which states will Trump visit before the midterms?

Vol

$21.57K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $21.57K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $21.57K

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

12 markets tracked

Will Donald Trump visit Alaska before the midterms?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(12)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Donald Trump visit Alaska before the midterms?	Poly	99%
Will Donald Trump visit Iowa before the midterms?	Poly	98%
Will Donald Trump visit Michigan before the midterms?	Poly	97%
Will Donald Trump visit Nevada before the midterms?	Poly	97%
Will Donald Trump visit North Carolina before the midterms?	Poly	95%
Will Donald Trump visit Georgia before the midterms?	Poly	95%
Will Donald Trump visit Arizona before the midterms?	Poly	93%
Will Donald Trump visit Kansas before the midterms?	Poly	79%
Will Donald Trump visit Wisconsin before the midterms?	Poly	71%
Will Donald Trump visit Maine before the midterms?	Poly	61%
Will Donald Trump visit New Hampshire before the midterms?	Poly	31%
Will Donald Trump visit Oregon before the midterms?	Poly	10%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

99%

Top Probability

$21.57K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump visits the listed US state between market creation and November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which states will Trump visit before the midterms?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 3, 2026 (23 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump visits the listed US state between market creation and November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump visits the listed US state between market creation and November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the lis"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $18.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $8.7K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.07)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Donald Trump visit Alaska before the midterms?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 98.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Donald Trump visit Arizona before the midterms?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $948
  DATA: [Yes: 93.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Donald Trump visit Georgia before the midterms?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $809
  DATA: [Yes: 94.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Donald Trump visit Iowa before the midterms?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $787
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Donald Trump visit Kansas before the midterms?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 79.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 21.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Donald Trump visit Maine before the midterms?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $894
  DATA: [Yes: 60.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Donald Trump visit Michigan before the midterms?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.9% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Donald Trump visit Nevada before the midterms?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $662
  DATA: [Yes: 97.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.9% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Donald Trump visit New Hampshire before the midterms?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 30.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Donald Trump visit North Carolina before the midterms?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 94.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.3% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Donald Trump visit Oregon before the midterms?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $347
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Donald Trump visit Wisconsin before the midterms?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 70.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics