Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Manchin Senate combo: Rogers & Collins

Total Volume

$80.31K

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Manchin Senate combo: Rogers & Collins

Vol

$80.31K

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $80.31K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $80.31K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Manchin Senate combo: Both lose?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Manchin Senate combo: Both lose?	Kalshi	52%
Manchin Senate combo: Both win?	Kalshi	23%
Manchin Senate combo: Rogers loses, Collins wins?	Kalshi	19%
Manchin Senate combo: Rogers wins, Collins loses?	Kalshi	7%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

52%

Top Probability

$80.31K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

On Nov 3, 2026 On Nov 3, 2026 This market is eligible for accelerated determination two days after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. The full rules provide further details. This market will close and expire early if all elections have been certified.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Manchin Senate combo: Rogers & Collins
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Nov 3, 2026

On Nov 3, 2026 This market is eligible for accelerated determination two days after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. The full rules provide further details. This market will close and expire early if all elections have been certified.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Mike Rogers in Michigan's U.S. Senate election and Susan Collins in Maine's U.S. Senate election win their respective November 3, 2026 elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination two days after a consensus of media organizatio"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $80.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Manchin Senate combo: Both win?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $20.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 23.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Manchin Senate combo: Rogers wins, Collins loses?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $17.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Manchin Senate combo: Rogers loses, Collins wins?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $20.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Manchin Senate combo: Both lose?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $22.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 51.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Manchin Senate combo: Rogers & Collins

Volume$80.31K

Markets4

4 of 4

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KALSHI

Manchin Senate combo: Both lose?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 51.5¢No 48.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Manchin Senate combo: Both lose?

If a candidate other than Mike Rogers in Michigan's U.S. Senate election and a candidate other than Susan Collins in Maine's U.S. Senate election win their respective November 3, 2026 elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination t

KALSHI

Manchin Senate combo: Both win?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 23.0¢No 77.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Manchin Senate combo: Both win?

If Mike Rogers in Michigan's U.S. Senate election and Susan Collins in Maine's U.S. Senate election win their respective November 3, 2026 elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination two days after a consensus of media organizatio

KALSHI

Manchin Senate combo: Rogers loses, Collins wins?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 19.0¢No 81.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Manchin Senate combo: Rogers loses, Collins wins?

If a candidate other than Mike Rogers in Michigan's U.S. Senate election and Susan Collins in Maine's U.S. Senate election win their respective November 3, 2026 elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination two days after a consens

KALSHI

Manchin Senate combo: Rogers wins, Collins loses?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 7.0¢No 93.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Manchin Senate combo: Rogers wins, Collins loses?

If Mike Rogers in Michigan's U.S. Senate election and a candidate other than Susan Collins in Maine's U.S. Senate election win their respective November 3, 2026 elections, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination two days after a consens

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25¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/T_lGKU" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Manchin Senate combo: Rogers & Collins"></iframe>

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Manchin Senate combo: Rogers & Collins

Manchin Senate combo: Rogers & Collins

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Manchin Senate combo: Both lose?

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Events (1)

Manchin Senate combo: Rogers & Collins

Markets (4)

Manchin Senate combo: Both lose?

Manchin Senate combo: Both lose?

Manchin Senate combo: Both win?

Manchin Senate combo: Both win?

Manchin Senate combo: Rogers loses, Collins wins?

Manchin Senate combo: Rogers loses, Collins wins?

Manchin Senate combo: Rogers wins, Collins loses?

Manchin Senate combo: Rogers wins, Collins loses?

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Manchin Senate combo: Both lose?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Manchin Senate combo: Rogers & Collins

Manchin Senate combo: Both lose?

Manchin Senate combo: Both lose?

Manchin Senate combo: Both win?

Manchin Senate combo: Both win?

Manchin Senate combo: Rogers loses, Collins wins?

Manchin Senate combo: Rogers loses, Collins wins?

Manchin Senate combo: Rogers wins, Collins loses?

Manchin Senate combo: Rogers wins, Collins loses?

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