What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting

Traders on prediction markets currently give Democrats a 91% chance of holding Washington's 1st Congressional District seat in the 2026 election. In simpler terms, the collective bet is a near-certainty, roughly 9 in 10, that a Democrat will win this House race. This shows an extremely high level of confidence in the outcome more than eight months before voters go to the polls.

Why the Market Sees It This Way

Two main factors explain this lopsided forecast. First is the district's recent voting history. WA-01, which covers parts of Seattle's northern suburbs and exurbs, has been represented by Democrat Suzan DelBene since 2012. She has won her last several elections by comfortable margins, suggesting a strong Democratic base. Second, the 2026 election is a midterm, not a presidential year. While the sitting president's party often faces headwinds in midterms, this district's consistent Democratic lean appears strong enough in traders' eyes to outweigh any potential national trend. The market is essentially betting that the district's fundamental political alignment won't change in the next year.

Key Dates and Events to Watch

The main event is Election Day on November 4, 2026. However, predictions could shift earlier based on two developments. The first is candidate filing and the primary election, likely in August 2026. If a strong, well-funded Republican challenger emerges or if an unexpected event triggers a competitive Democratic primary, the odds might move. The second factor is the national political environment through 2026. Significant changes in presidential approval ratings or a major shift in the generic congressional ballot could affect the perceived safety of all House seats, including this one.

How Reliable Are These Predictions?

Prediction markets have a solid track record forecasting U.S. House races, especially in districts with clear and persistent partisan leans like WA-01. Their accuracy generally improves as election day nears and more information becomes available. The key limitation here is time. With over 250 days until the election, this 91% probability is more a snapshot of the current structural advantage than a final call. Major, unpredictable events—a scandal, a surprise retirement, or a major local issue—could still change the race, but the market sees that as unlikely.