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How many states will redistrict before the midterms?

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How many states will redistrict before the midterms?

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Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be exactly 9 before the 2026 midterms?

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be exactly 9 before the 2026 midterms?	Kalshi	41%
Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be exactly 8 before the 2026 midterms?	Kalshi	25%
Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be exactly 10 before the 2026 midterms?	Kalshi	12%
Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be below 8 before the 2026 midterms?	Kalshi	10%
Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be exactly 11 before the 2026 midterms?	Kalshi	6%
Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be exactly 12 before the 2026 midterms?	Kalshi	4%
Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be above 12 before the 2026 midterms?	Kalshi	4%

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About This Event

before the 2026 midterms If X Y distinct U.S. states undergo congressional redistricting before the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this market, “undergo congressional redistricting” means satisfying the Payout Criterion of the REDISTRICTING contract. “After Issuance” in the REDISTRICTING contract is treated as “after July 1, 2025.” REDISTRICTING contract: https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/contract_terms/REDISTRICTING.pdf

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many states will redistrict before the midterms?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** before the 2026 midterms

If X Y distinct U.S. states undergo congressional redistricting before the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this market, “undergo congressional redistricting” means satisfying the Payout Criterion of the REDISTRICTING contract. “After Issuance” in the REDISTRICTING contract is treated as “after July 1, 2025.” REDISTRICTING contract: https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/contract_terms/REDISTRICTING.pdf

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If below 8 distinct U.S. states undergo congressional redistricting before the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, “undergo congressional redistricting” means satisfying the Payout Criterion of the REDISTRICTING contract. “After Issuance” in "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be below 8 before the 2026 midterms?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be exactly 9 before the 2026 midterms?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 41.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be exactly 8 before the 2026 midterms?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 25.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be exactly 12 before the 2026 midterms?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be exactly 11 before the 2026 midterms?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be exactly 10 before the 2026 midterms?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be above 12 before the 2026 midterms?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

How many states will redistrict before the midterms?

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KALSHI

Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be exactly 9 before the 2026 midterms?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 41.0¢No 59.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be exactly 9 before the 2026 midterms?

If exactly 9 distinct U.S. states undergo congressional redistricting before the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, “undergo congressional redistricting” means satisfying the Payout Criterion of the REDISTRICTING contract. “After Issuance” i

KALSHI

Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be exactly 8 before the 2026 midterms?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 25.0¢No 75.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be exactly 8 before the 2026 midterms?

If exactly 8 distinct U.S. states undergo congressional redistricting before the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, “undergo congressional redistricting” means satisfying the Payout Criterion of the REDISTRICTING contract. “After Issuance” i

KALSHI

Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be exactly 10 before the 2026 midterms?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.5¢No 88.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be exactly 10 before the 2026 midterms?

If exactly 10 distinct U.S. states undergo congressional redistricting before the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, “undergo congressional redistricting” means satisfying the Payout Criterion of the REDISTRICTING contract. “After Issuance”

KALSHI

Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be below 8 before the 2026 midterms?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be below 8 before the 2026 midterms?

If below 8 distinct U.S. states undergo congressional redistricting before the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, “undergo congressional redistricting” means satisfying the Payout Criterion of the REDISTRICTING contract. “After Issuance” in

KALSHI

Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be exactly 11 before the 2026 midterms?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.0¢No 94.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be exactly 11 before the 2026 midterms?

If exactly 11 distinct U.S. states undergo congressional redistricting before the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, “undergo congressional redistricting” means satisfying the Payout Criterion of the REDISTRICTING contract. “After Issuance”

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Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be exactly 9 before the 2026 midterms?

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Events (1)

How many states will redistrict before the midterms?

Markets (7)

Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be exactly 9 before the 2026 midterms?

Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be exactly 9 before the 2026 midterms?

Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be exactly 8 before the 2026 midterms?

Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be exactly 8 before the 2026 midterms?

Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be exactly 10 before the 2026 midterms?

Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be exactly 10 before the 2026 midterms?

Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be below 8 before the 2026 midterms?

Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be below 8 before the 2026 midterms?

Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be exactly 11 before the 2026 midterms?

Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be exactly 11 before the 2026 midterms?

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Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be exactly 9 before the 2026 midterms?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How many states will redistrict before the midterms?

Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be exactly 9 before the 2026 midterms?

Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be exactly 9 before the 2026 midterms?

Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be exactly 8 before the 2026 midterms?

Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be exactly 8 before the 2026 midterms?

Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be exactly 10 before the 2026 midterms?

Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be exactly 10 before the 2026 midterms?

Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be below 8 before the 2026 midterms?

Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be below 8 before the 2026 midterms?

Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be exactly 11 before the 2026 midterms?

Will the number of distinct U.S. states satisfying the REDISTRICTING Payout Criterion before November 3, 2026, treating “after Issuance” as “after July 1, 2025” be exactly 11 before the 2026 midterms?

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