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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Before 2035 If X is cast in Miami Vice before Jan 1, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Prediction markets currently assign a low 34% probability to Glen Powell being cast in the next Miami Vice film or series before 2035. This price, found exclusively on Kalshi, indicates the market views his casting as unlikely but not impossible. With only about $5,000 in total volume spread thinly across related markets, this is a speculative niche market with limited liquidity, meaning prices could be volatile if new information emerges.
The primary factor suppressing the odds is the significant uncertainty surrounding the project itself. While a reboot of Miami Vice has been in sporadic development for years, there is no officially greenlit production with a set casting timeline. This creates inherent risk for any actor-specific market. Regarding Glen Powell specifically, his rising star status following Top Gun, Maverick and Hit Man makes him a plausible candidate for a leading role in a major franchise reboot. However, his crowded upcoming schedule and the lack of concrete movement on the Miami Vice project keep probability low. Markets are effectively pricing the combined risk of the project moving forward and Powell being the chosen actor.
Any official announcement from a major studio, such as Universal, or a producer like Michael Mann attaching themselves to a Miami Vice reboot would cause immediate volatility and likely increase probabilities across all actor-specific markets. Conversely, if Powell signs onto another long-term franchise project or the Miami Vice reboot is officially shelved, the odds would plummet. Key monitoring points are industry trade announcements from outlets like Deadline or The Hollywood Reporter. The 2035 deadline is distant, so the most significant shifts will come from project development news, not the passage of time alone.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the potential casting decisions for a new iteration of the television series 'Miami Vice', with the specific condition that an actor or actress, designated as 'X', must be cast in a role before January 1, 2035. The market resolves to 'Yes' if this casting occurs, and will close early upon confirmation of the event. The interest stems from the enduring cultural legacy of the original 1980s series, which defined a generation with its distinctive style, music, and themes of crime and glamour in South Florida. Recent years have seen a significant resurgence in nostalgia-driven reboots and revivals across the entertainment industry, making a new 'Miami Vice' project a plausible venture for studios seeking established intellectual property. The original series, starring Don Johnson and Philip Michael Thomas, was a landmark production for NBC, influencing fashion, music, and television aesthetics. Speculation about a revival has been intermittent since the 2006 feature film adaptation, with various producers and networks occasionally expressing interest in revisiting the property. The market allows participants to speculate not just on the likelihood of a reboot, but on the specific involvement of particular talent, reflecting broader industry trends in franchise management and star-driven content.
The original 'Miami Vice' series premiered on NBC on September 16, 1984, and ran for five seasons until July 28, 1989. It was a product of NBC executive Brandon Tartikoff's famous memo asking for 'MTV Cops,' and it became a defining show of the 1980s, known for its pastel fashion, contemporary pop/rock soundtrack, and cinematic visual style. The series launched the careers of Don Johnson and Philip Michael Thomas into superstardom and won numerous awards, including an Emmy for Outstanding Drama Series in 1985. A previous attempt to revive the franchise was the 2006 feature film directed by Michael Mann, starring Colin Farrell and Jamie Foxx. The film was a moderate box office success but received mixed reviews, demonstrating both the enduring appeal and the challenges of updating the property. The television landscape has changed dramatically since 1989, with the rise of cable prestige drama and streaming services, which now frequently mine classic IP for new content. The success of other 80s-era revivals, like 'Cobra Kai' (based on 'The Karate Kid'), has proven the commercial viability of such projects, setting a precedent for 'Miami Vice'.
The casting of a new 'Miami Vice' represents more than just another television reboot, it is a significant event within the entertainment industry's ongoing reliance on established intellectual property to mitigate financial risk in a crowded market. A high-profile revival can drive subscriber growth for a streaming service, generate substantial merchandising revenue, and create synergistic opportunities across a media conglomerate's portfolio, from music licensing to theme park attractions. Culturally, it reflects the powerful grip of 1980s nostalgia on contemporary pop culture, influencing fashion, music, and aesthetic trends for a new generation. The specific casting choice for lead roles would signal the creative direction of the project, whether it aims for legacy appeal with original stars, seeks to attract a new demographic with younger actors, or attempts a blend of both. The success or failure of such a project can impact the careers of those involved and either validate or cool the industry's appetite for further revivals of properties from that era.
As of late 2024, there is no officially announced 'Miami Vice' television revival in active production. Michael Mann has occasionally discussed potential interest in another film or series iteration in interviews over the years, but no concrete project has been greenlit. The rights remain with Universal Television. The industry context, however, is perennially ripe for such announcements, with streaming services and networks constantly developing projects based on recognizable IP. Any movement would likely begin with trade reports of a writer or showrunner being hired to develop a new take, followed by a formal announcement from a studio or network.
No, a new 'Miami Vice' television series has not been officially confirmed or announced by a studio, network, or streaming service as of late 2024. The property remains a subject of periodic speculation and reported interest within the industry.
It is uncertain. While Don Johnson's involvement would lend authenticity, his role would depend on the creative direction. He could potentially return in a lead role, a supporting/mentor capacity, or as an executive producer, but no commitments have been made.
The most likely platform is Peacock, the streaming service owned by NBCUniversal, which holds the rights to the original series. Other possibilities include other NBCU outlets or a sale to a competing streamer like Netflix or Amazon, though this is less probable.
Original creator Michael Mann is the most obvious candidate, given his continued filmmaking career. Other directors known for stylish action or crime dramas, such as Kathryn Bigelow, Nicolas Winding Refn, or S. Craig Zahler, have been suggested by fans and critics as potential fits.
The series finale, 'Freefall,' aired in 1989. It concluded with Sonny Crockett (Don Johnson) resigning from the police force after a traumatic case, driving off into an uncertain future, leaving his partnership with Ricardo Tubbs (Philip Michael Thomas) effectively dissolved.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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10 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will Glen Powell be casted in the next Miami Vice? | Kalshi | 34% |
Will Ryan Gosling be casted in the next Miami Vice? | Kalshi | 20% |
Will Pedro Pascal be casted in the next Miami Vice? | Kalshi | 8% |
Will Richard Madden be casted in the next Miami Vice? | Kalshi | 6% |
Will Garrett Hedlund be casted in the next Miami Vice? | Kalshi | 6% |
Will Tom Hardy be casted in the next Miami Vice? | Kalshi | 6% |
Will Taylor Kitsch be casted in the next Miami Vice? | Kalshi | 6% |
Will Oscar Isaac be casted in the next Miami Vice? | Kalshi | 6% |
Will Miles Teller be casted in the next Miami Vice? | Kalshi | 6% |
Will Jake Gyllenhaal be casted in the next Miami Vice? | Kalshi | 6% |
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