Solana Up or Down - October 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET
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Solana Up or Down - October 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-25T15:00:05.906Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single short-window contract on Polymarket titled "Solana Up or Down - October 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET" [1]. The rules state that it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the SOL/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules say the market is "not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. Other Solana price feeds or exchange prices therefore do not decide this contract.
The listed end time is 2026-10-26T14:10:00.000Z [1]. That timestamp is the contract's listed close, not a confirmed resolution time, and the evidence does not show the outcome.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-25T15:00:05.906Z and retrieved at 2026-10-25T16:01:03.496Z [1]. The provider status recorded in the source is "active" [1]. Readers should treat that as a status at the time of retrieval, not a live status now.
At the observation time, the saved prices were "Up" at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The evidence does not include volume, order book depth, or trader counts, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many participants hold each side.
The sample covers one saved market from one provider event. The coverage record shows one total market and one included market, with no partial sample flag [1]. This means the saved event is complete as provided, but the source also states that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Because this is a binary Up or Down pair, the two listed prices are the only outcomes in the saved record.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices were where they were, and it does not include any news or market commentary. It also does not show whether the price has changed since the snapshot. A small gap between two contracts with different windows, close times, or resolution sources should not be read as an arbitrage opportunity without checking those terms and executable prices.
References
- Polymarket: Solana Up or Down - October 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-25T15:00:05.906Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 25, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a short-window price question about Solana (SOL). The listed title is "Solana Up or Down - October 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET" [1]. According to the saved contract rules, it resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The window in the title corresponds to 14:05 to 14:10 UTC on October 26, and the listed end time is 2026-10-26T14:10:00Z [1]. The rules name Chainlink as the resolution source. The source is the SOL/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, with a 60-second TWAP configuration [1]. The rules also state that the market concerns the price in that Chainlink TWAP data stream for SOL/USD, and not any other source or spot market [1]. This means the contract is settled by one specified data feed, so a move on another exchange or a different reference price does not by itself determine the outcome [1]. The saved record was observed at 15:00 UTC on October 25, 2026, and retrieved at 16:01 UTC the same day. At that retrieval time the contract window had not yet occurred, and the record lists the provider status as active [1]. A saved record like this shows the contract terms and the state of the listing when it was captured. It does not show how the window will end.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the Chainlink SOL/USD TWAP over a five-minute window, from 10:05 to 10:10 AM ET, finishes at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. Because it uses an average over the window rather than a single instant, the result depends on the path of the data stream during those minutes and not only on the starting and ending prints. The rule that the comparison is made against the price at the beginning of the range defines what counts as a rise. The contract is therefore narrowly about this one feed and this one interval, and its outcome is defined entirely by the rules quoted from the provider [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-25 at 15:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes this contract resolve Up?
It resolves Up if the Chainlink SOL/USD TWAP over the 10:05 to 10:10 AM ET window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window [1].
What makes it resolve Down?
Under the rules, any outcome other than the TWAP being greater than or equal to the starting price resolves Down, so a TWAP below the starting price resolves Down [1].
Which price data determines the result?
The rules specify the Chainlink SOL/USD TWAP data stream, and state that other sources or spot markets are not the basis for resolution [1].
Why does the TWAP matter compared with a single price?
The contract is defined on a time-weighted average over the window, so the resolution reflects the average across the interval rather than one moment's price [1].
What time zone does the window use?
The title states the window in Eastern Time, from 10:05AM to 10:10AM ET on October 26 [1]. The saved end time of 2026-10-26T14:10:00Z corresponds to 10:10 AM ET on that date [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.