Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsPolitics
Who will lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?
Total Volume
$72.31M
Events
2
Markets
34
Who will lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?
Vol
$72.31M
|
Events
2
|
Markets
34
$72.31M
2
34
$72.31M
2
34
19 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64% | 65% | 2% |
| 13% | 15% | 2% |
| 11% | 7% | 5% |
| 3% | 10% | 6% |
| 1% | 6% | 5% |
| 1% | 6% | 4% |
| 1% | 4% | 3% |
| 0% | 4% | 3% |
| 0% | 4% | 3% |
| 0% | 3% | 2% |
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Dec 31, 2026 If X officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. For the purposes of this contract, "officially holds" means any of the following: X has been formally appointed, confirmed, if confirmation is required, and sworn in as the head of state Y is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as the head of state of Venezuela; or X is actively servin
Prediction markets currently give Delcy Rodríguez, Venezuela's current Vice President, about a 66% chance of being the country's head of state at the end of 2026. In simpler terms, traders see a roughly 2 in 3 probability that she will lead the nation at that time. This is the leading forecast among several possibilities, indicating a significant, though not overwhelming, confidence in this outcome. The high trading volume, over $71 million, shows strong public interest in Venezuela's political future.
The odds favor Rodríguez for a few key reasons. First, she is a powerful and loyal figure within the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) and is widely seen as a chosen successor to current President Nicolás Maduro. Her brother, Jorge Rodríguez, also leads the National Assembly, consolidating the family's influence.
Second, the opposition remains fragmented. Despite an agreement last year for competitive elections in 2025, the main opposition candidate, María Corina Machado, remains barred from holding office. This creates a path for the PSUV to retain power, potentially through Maduro winning again and then transferring power, or by Rodríguez assuming a leading role directly.
Finally, the market may be pricing in the stability of the current political system. The government maintains control over key institutions like the military and electoral council, making a sudden, unexpected change in leadership from outside the ruling party seem less likely.
The presidential election scheduled for July 28, 2025, is the central event. The official result and whether it is accepted domestically and internationally will set the course. Watch for any announcement from President Maduro about running for re-election or, conversely, stepping aside. After the election, any potential inauguration or transfer of power in early 2026 would be a major signal. International reactions, particularly from the United States regarding sanctions, could also influence the political stability leading up to the end of 2026.
Prediction markets have a mixed but often insightful record on political succession, especially in less transparent systems. They can effectively aggregate insider knowledge and nuanced expectations that polls miss. However, in a country like Venezuela, where political control is tightly held and surprises can happen, the market's view is more of a snapshot of informed sentiment than a guaranteed forecast. The 66% probability still leaves a 1 in 3 chance for another outcome, such as Maduro retaining the presidency or a different figure from within the ruling party emerging.
Prediction markets currently assign a 66% probability that Delcy Rodríguez will be the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026. This price, translating to a two-in-three chance, indicates the market views her succession as the most likely outcome but with significant remaining uncertainty. The market has high liquidity, with over $71 million in volume spread across 34 related contracts, suggesting strong trader engagement. A 1.4% price spread exists between platforms, with Kalshi pricing the event slightly higher than Polymarket.
The primary factor is the consolidation of power within the ruling PSUV party around President Nicolás Maduro. Delcy Rodríguez, the current Vice President, is widely seen as Maduro's chosen political heir. Her control over key government functions and loyalty to the existing socialist project make her the clear institutional favorite. Markets are pricing in the expectation that the 2024 and 2025 electoral processes will be managed to ensure a controlled transition, not a competitive election. Historical precedent also supports this, as the PSUV has successfully orchestrated leadership handoffs before, notably from Hugo Chávez to Maduro.
The 66% probability leaves room for major political shocks. The largest risk is a decisive opposition victory in the 2025 presidential election, which could see a candidate like María Corina Machado or a unified coalition nominee take power. However, the market currently discounts this due to the government's record of electoral manipulation and disqualification of opponents. Internal regime fracture is another risk. If Maduro's health declines or a powerful faction like the military decides Rodríguez is unacceptable, a different PSUV figure such as Jorge Rodríguez or Tareck El Aissami could emerge. External pressure, including the potential reinstatement of U.S. oil sanctions, could also destabilize the succession timeline.
The event is traded on both Kalshi and Polymarket, with Kalshi consistently pricing the "Yes" outcome about 1.4 percentage points higher. This minor spread likely stems from differing user bases and small arbitrage barriers like transfer times and fees, not a fundamental disagreement. The narrow gap indicates consensus on the core narrative. The high volume across both platforms confirms this is a mainstream political prediction, not a niche bet. Traders are effectively united in seeing Rodríguez as the frontrunner while hedging against Venezuela's volatile politics.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic asks who will be the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026. The market resolves based on who officially holds the position at that specific time, as defined by formal appointment, swearing-in, or listing in authoritative government sources. The question is significant because Venezuela is experiencing a prolonged political crisis with competing claims to legitimate authority. The country has been governed by Nicolás Maduro since 2013, following the death of Hugo Chávez, but his presidency has been contested by an opposition-led National Assembly and an interim government recognized by dozens of countries. Interest in this topic stems from Venezuela's ongoing economic collapse, humanitarian emergency, and its role as a geopolitical flashpoint involving the United States, Russia, China, and regional powers. The 2024 presidential election, scheduled for July 28, is the immediate event that will shape the political landscape leading up to the 2026 date. However, the legitimacy of that election is already in dispute, with the main opposition candidate, María Corina Machado, barred from holding office. The outcome will determine control over the world's largest proven oil reserves and the future of millions of Venezuelans affected by hyperinflation and mass migration.
Venezuela's current crisis has roots in the presidency of Hugo Chávez, who was elected in 1998 on a platform of socialist revolution, known as the Bolivarian Revolution. He rewrote the constitution in 1999, centralized power, and used soaring oil revenues to fund social programs. After Chávez's death in March 2013, his handpicked successor, Nicolás Maduro, narrowly won a special election in April 2013 against Henrique Capriles. Maduro's presidency coincided with a collapse in global oil prices after 2014, exposing the fragility of the oil-dependent economy. The opposition won a supermajority in the National Assembly in December 2015 elections, a major defeat for the PSUV. In response, the government-stacked Supreme Court attempted to strip the Assembly of its powers in March 2017, sparking massive protests. Maduro then convened a National Constituent Assembly in July 2017, bypassing the opposition-led legislature to rewrite the constitution and consolidate power. The presidential election of May 2018 was widely condemned as fraudulent by the opposition and international observers after key candidates were barred. This led to the political crisis of 2019 and Guaidó's interim presidency. Subsequent negotiations between the government and opposition in Mexico City, mediated by Norway, have repeatedly stalled, failing to produce a lasting agreement on electoral conditions.
The leadership of Venezuela directly impacts the humanitarian well-being of its 28 million citizens. The country has suffered one of the worst economic contractions in modern history outside of war, with severe shortages of food, medicine, and basic services. Over 7.7 million Venezuelans have fled the country since 2015, creating a regional migration crisis. Domestically, the outcome determines whether the country continues under a centralized, authoritarian model or moves toward a more pluralistic system. It also has major implications for global energy markets. Venezuela possesses the largest proven oil reserves in the world, estimated at 303.8 billion barrels. Who controls the state oil company PDVSA influences global oil supply and prices. Internationally, Venezuela is a proxy for broader geopolitical competition. The Maduro government is supported by Russia, China, and Iran, while the United States and many Western democracies have supported the opposition. A change in leadership could realign Venezuela's foreign policy and either ease or intensify sanctions that have crippled its economy.
The political situation is focused on the presidential election scheduled for July 28, 2024. The opposition Unitary Platform, after its primary winner María Corina Machado and her replacement Corina Yoris were barred from registering, nominated former diplomat Edmundo González Urrutia as its consensus candidate on April 20, 2024. Nicolás Maduro is running for a third term representing the PSUV. The European Union has stated it will not send an electoral observation mission, citing a lack of minimum conditions. The Biden administration reinstated some sanctions on Venezuela's oil and gas sector in April 2024, stating Maduro had failed to uphold his commitments under the Barbados Agreement, which promised electoral guarantees. Negotiations between the government and opposition are currently suspended.
In June 2023, Venezuela's Comptroller General, an institution controlled by allies of President Maduro, issued a 15-year administrative ban against Machado. The office cited allegations of supporting international sanctions against Venezuela and administrative violations during her time as a legislator. The opposition and international observers widely view the ban as a political maneuver to disqualify the most popular challenger to Maduro.
Maduro's government is recognized by a number of countries including Russia, China, Cuba, Iran, Turkey, and Bolivia. Many other nations, particularly in Africa and parts of Asia, also maintain diplomatic relations with his administration. The recognition landscape shifted after 2019, when over 50 countries, led by the United States, recognized Juan Guaidó as interim president, though that support has largely eroded.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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Dec 31, 2026 If X officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. For the purposes of this contract, "officially holds" means any of the following: X has been formally appointed, confirmed, if confirmation is required, and sworn in as the head of state Y is listed in official government directories, organizational charts, or equivalent authoritative sources as the head of state of Venezuela; or X is actively servin
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the h
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in
If Delcy Rodríguez officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For the purposes of this contract, "officially holds" means any of the following: Delcy Rodríguez has been formally appointed, confirme
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in
If María Corina Machado officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For the purposes of this contract, "officially holds" means any of the following: María Corina Machado has been formally appointed
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in
If Nicolás Maduro officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The person must officially hold the specified role at 10:00 AM ET on the check date. This means they must be formally appointed, confirm
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in
If Edmundo González Urrutia officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For the purposes of this contract, "officially holds" means any of the following: Edmundo González Urrutia has been formally a
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in
If Diosdado Cabello Rondón officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For the purposes of this contract, "officially holds" means any of the following: Diosdado Cabello Rondón has been formally app
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