This contract asks who will hold the office of head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026. Two prediction market providers list events on this question: Kalshi, with a rules text that resolves a Yes market if the named person officially holds the position at 10:00 AM ET on December 31, 2026 [1], and Polymarket, which resolves to the individual who officially holds the position at 12 PM ET on the same date [2]. Both rules require more than a claim to power. Under Kalshi's text, the person must have been formally appointed, confirmed where confirmation is required, and sworn in, and must be actively serving, with official government directories or other authoritative sources reflecting that status [1]. Polymarket's text similarly refers to formal appointment, confirmation where required, and swearing in, or confirmation by official government information [2]. The Polymarket excerpt also addresses the case where the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who holds the office, but the supplied text is cut off before that provision is complete, so it is not described further here [2]. The rules therefore measure official recognition as of a stated time, not the outcome of any particular election or a prediction about who will be in power. The two providers use different cutoff times on December 31, 2026, and Polymarket's listed end time falls at 2027-01-01 04:59 UTC [2]. The Kalshi market end dates shown in the evidence are January 7, 2027 [1]. These dates come from the contract rules and listing data. They are not announced events and do not indicate when a result will be known or announced. The contracts include individual yes or no markets for named people, such as former and current political figures and military officials, which the platforms list as separate markets within one event. Each market asks whether that person will be head of state on the stated date. Because the events are structured this way, a single event can contain several markets whose outcomes are not mutually exclusive in the sense of a simple ranking. Readers should treat each market as its own question under its own rules.

Historical Context

A Wikipedia article on the 2026 United States intervention in Venezuela states that on 3 January 2026 the United States launched a military strike in Venezuela and captured Maduro and Flores, with the operation beginning around 2 a.m. local time [4]. The same summary says approximately 80 people, including Venezuelan and Cuban military and civilians, died, and seven American soldiers were wounded [4]. These events are background to why the contract exists, since the leadership question followed from them. The supplied evidence does not describe the subsequent transfer of power, so the historical account here stops at the January events.

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