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$16.59K
1
4
$16.59K
1
4
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This event is for the CBB game between St. Francis (PA) Red Flash and Chicago State Cougars on January 29 at 7:00 PM ET. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
Prediction markets currently show this college basketball game as essentially a coin flip. Traders collectively give St. Francis (PA) a very slight edge, pricing in about a 53% chance they win. This means the market sees the game as highly uncertain, with roughly a 1 in 2 chance for either team. The small amount of money wagered here, about $2,000, indicates this is a niche market with limited attention from the broader prediction community.
The near-even odds reflect the unique nature of this matchup. St. Francis (PA) is a Division I team, while New Haven competes in Division II. Typically, a D-I team would be a clear favorite against a D-II opponent. However, St. Francis has struggled significantly this season, holding one of the weaker records in D-I men's basketball. New Haven, meanwhile, is a competitive team within its division. The market is essentially weighing St. Francis's theoretical D-I advantage against its very poor current form, resulting in a toss-up forecast. These "non-conference" games between divisions are rare and often tricky to predict.
The key event is the game itself, scheduled for January 25 at 1:00 PM ET. The market will close once the final buzzer sounds. The only major factor that could shift predictions before tip-off would be a last-minute announcement about a key player's availability, like an injury or illness for either team. Since this is a lower-profile game, such news might not be widely reported until very close to game time.
Prediction markets are generally reliable for major sporting events with lots of trading activity. For a niche game like this with very little money at stake, the signal is weaker. The small pool of traders might not represent the full range of available information. While the collective intelligence of even a small market is often insightful, the low volume means the odds could be more easily swayed by a few individuals rather than a broad consensus. View this more as an interesting snapshot of a small group's opinion rather than a highly confident forecast.
Prediction markets assign a 53% probability to St. Francis (PA) winning this non-conference college basketball game. With a price of 53¢ on the "Yes" share, the market views the Red Flash as a slight favorite. This is essentially a coin flip, indicating no clear advantage for either team. The total market volume is only $2,000, which is very low. Thin liquidity like this means the price can be easily moved by a single large bet and may not fully reflect informed consensus.
St. Francis (PA) plays in NCAA Division I's Northeast Conference, while New Haven is a Division II program. The historical gap in resources, athletic scholarships, and competition level between D-I and D-II teams typically gives the D-I school a significant edge. However, St. Francis has struggled this season with a poor record against D-I competition. This likely tempers market confidence, compressing their odds from what would normally be a much higher probability. The market's near-even pricing suggests bettors believe New Haven's cohesive play at the D-II level could overcome the talent disparity against an underperforming D-I opponent.
The primary catalyst is the game itself, set for January 25. Any last-minute news on player availability, especially a key injury for St. Francis, could shift the thin market. A major bet in either direction could also swing the probability several points due to the low liquidity. The 50-50 cancellation rule provides a floor for both sides, limiting downside risk in the unlikely event the game is not played. For bettors, the central question is whether St. Francis's D-I pedigree will finally translate to a win, or if their season-long difficulties will lead to a notable loss to a D-II school.
This market is trading exclusively on Polymarket. No comparable market exists on Kalshi or other major platforms, which is common for niche collegiate sporting events. The lack of cross-platform trading eliminates arbitrage opportunities and means all available liquidity is concentrated in one place. The isolated, low-volume nature of this market makes it highly speculative.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
4 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 91% |
| Poly | 66% |
| Poly | 10% |
| Poly | 0% |
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