Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIFinancials

How high will the 30Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?

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$3.43K

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How high will the 30Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?

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$3.43K

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $3.43K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.43K

100%

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3 markets tracked

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.69% by Jan 1, 2027?

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Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.69% by Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	71%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.74% by Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	60%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.79% by Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	50%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

71%

Top Probability

$3.43K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

By Jan 1, 2027 If the daily published par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above X on any business day between Sep 30, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market covers the period between Sep 30, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 30Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each busine

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How high will the 30Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?
**Category:** Financials | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** By Jan 1, 2027

If the daily published par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above X on any business day between Sep 30, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market covers the period between Sep 30, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 30Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each busine

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the daily published par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.79% on any business day between Sep 30, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market covers the period between Sep 30, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury P"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.79% by Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $909
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.74% by Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 60.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 40.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.69% by Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 71.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIFinancials

How high will the 30Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?

Volume$3.43K

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KALSHI

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.69% by Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 71.0¢No 29.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.69% by Jan 1, 2027?

If the daily published par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.69% on any business day between Sep 28, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market covers the period between Sep 28, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury P

KALSHI

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.74% by Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 60.0¢No 40.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.74% by Jan 1, 2027?

If the daily published par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.74% on any business day between Sep 30, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market covers the period between Sep 30, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury P

KALSHI

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.79% by Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 50.0¢No 50.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.79% by Jan 1, 2027?

If the daily published par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.79% on any business day between Sep 30, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market covers the period between Sep 30, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury P

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60¢

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How high will the 30Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?

How high will the 30Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?

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Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.69% by Jan 1, 2027?

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Events (1)

How high will the 30Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?

Markets (3)

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.69% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.69% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.74% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.74% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.79% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.79% by Jan 1, 2027?

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Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.69% by Jan 1, 2027?

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How high will the 30Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.69% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.69% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.74% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.74% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.79% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.79% by Jan 1, 2027?

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