Market snapshot: Oct 30, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsEconomy

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

Reported volume

PM $1.12M · K 5.7K contracts

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

Vol

PM $1.12M · K 5.7K contracts

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Current odds

Snapshot from Oct 30, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC

As of Oct 30, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 5.3% at 36%, and on Kalshi it is 5.35% or above at 16.5%.

Polymarket

5.3%36%
5.4%21.5%
5.5%11.6%
5.7%5.3%
6.0%2.9%

Kalshi

5.35% or above16.5%
5.4% or above16.5%
5.5% or above10.5%
5.45% or above9.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

Price ChartContract price history

8 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?

No data available

Include related or unreviewed contracts

No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with usable prices. You can inspect related contracts, but their prices do not measure the same outcome.

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Saved matching review

Related contracts: 1 pair

A saved event match does not establish identical settlement. Pair reviews appear with each price comparison.

Review notes

Saved notes may describe earlier contract terms. Use the pair status above and current provider rules.

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 1 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-03T00:35:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $1.12M · K 5.7K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

Saved contracts

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 30, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
Source snapshot: Oct 30, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): PM $1.12M · K 5.7K contracts
Coverage: 9 of 9 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.49% by Jan 1, 2027?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.49; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirhm-27jan01h
Observed: Oct 30, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Jan 3, 2027, 12:35 AM UTC
Reported volume: 702.22 contracts
Outcome Yes: 10.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 89.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.49% on any business day between Oct 6, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market covers the period between Oct 6, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Contract: Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-677026; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-10-year-treasury-yield-hit-5pt5-before-2027-997-245
Observed: Oct 30, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $227.6K
Outcome Yes: 11.6%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 88.4%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.44% by Jan 1, 2027?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.44; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirhm-27jan01h
Observed: Oct 30, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Jan 3, 2027, 12:35 AM UTC
Reported volume: 1.4K contracts
Outcome Yes: 9.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 90.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.44% on any business day between Oct 6, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market covers the period between Oct 6, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.39% by Jan 1, 2027?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.39; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirhm-27jan01h
Observed: Oct 30, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Jan 3, 2027, 12:35 AM UTC
Reported volume: 738.74 contracts
Outcome Yes: 16.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 83.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.39% on any business day between Oct 6, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market covers the period between Oct 6, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.34% by Jan 1, 2027?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.34; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirhm-27jan01h
Observed: Oct 30, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Jan 3, 2027, 12:35 AM UTC
Reported volume: 2.9K contracts
Outcome Yes: 16.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 83.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.34% on any business day between Sep 28, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market covers the period between Sep 28, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Contract: Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-677027; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-10-year-treasury-yield-hit-5pt7-before-2027-988-682
Observed: Oct 30, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $128.4K
Outcome Yes: 5.3%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 94.7%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Contract: Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-677028; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-10-year-treasury-yield-hit-6pt0-before-2027-269-656
Observed: Oct 30, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $119.2K
Outcome Yes: 2.9%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 97.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Contract: Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-4890803; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-10-year-treasury-yield-hit-5pt4-before-2027
Observed: Oct 30, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $88.9K
Outcome Yes: 21.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 78.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date from market creation to December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Contract: Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-6070855; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-10-year-treasury-yield-hit-5pt3-before-2027-readd
Observed: Oct 30, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $1.4K
Outcome Yes: 36.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 64.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date from market creation to December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Saved cross-platform review:
polymarket-677026 / kalshi-KX10YRDIRHM-27JAN01H-T5.49: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.49% by Jan 1, 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-01-03T00:35:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 30, 2026, 3:19 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 0 same question with differing fine print, 1 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-03T00:35:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIFinancials

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?

By Jan 1, 2027 If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above X on any business day between Oct 6, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market covers the period between Oct 6, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Volume$5.69K

Markets4

POLYMARKETEconomy

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

Volume$1.12M

Markets5

8 of 8

Sort:

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?

polymarket

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?

Yes: 36.0¢
No: 64.0¢

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?

polymarket

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?

Yes: 21.5¢
No: 78.5¢

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.34% by Jan 1, 2027?

kalshi

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.34% by Jan 1, 2027?

Yes: 16.5¢
No: 83.5¢

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.39% by Jan 1, 2027?

kalshi

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.39% by Jan 1, 2027?

Yes: 16.5¢
No: 83.5¢

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.49% by Jan 1, 2027?

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.49% by Jan 1, 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-01-03T00:35:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Fri, 30 Oct 2026 03:19:49 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

kalshi

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.49% by Jan 1, 2027?

Yes: 10.5¢
No: 89.5¢

polymarket

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?

Yes: 11.6¢
No: 88.4¢

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketEconomy

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Next Market Deadline

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Jan 01, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC

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Price gaps of 2 pp+

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How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

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Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?

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Events (2)

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

Markets (1)

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.34% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.39% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.49% by Jan 1, 2027?

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Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?

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Saved matching review

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.34% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.39% by Jan 1, 2027?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.49% by Jan 1, 2027?

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