Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

How many Senators will vote for the American Affordability and Jobs Act?

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$447.00

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How many Senators will vote for the American Affordability and Jobs Act?

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$447.00

Events

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Kalshi

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Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 56 Yea votes in the Senate?

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Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 56 Yea votes in the Senate?	Kalshi	68%
Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 60 Yea votes in the Senate?	Kalshi	62%
Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 64 Yea votes in the Senate?	Kalshi	57%
Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 68 Yea votes in the Senate?	Kalshi	51%
Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 72 Yea votes in the Senate?	Kalshi	38%
Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 76 Yea votes in the Senate?	Kalshi	24%
Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 80 Yea votes in the Senate?	Kalshi	10%
Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 84 Yea votes in the Senate?	Kalshi	5%

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68%

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$447.00

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About This Event

Before Jan 1, 2027 If the number of Senators voting Yea on final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms before Jan 1, 2027 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 counts under that name, including as amended. Other legislation, including a renamed version or a larger bill such as a defense authorization or government funding bill, counts if it

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many Senators will vote for the American Affordability and Jobs Act?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 1, 2027

If the number of Senators voting Yea on final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms before Jan 1, 2027 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 counts under that name, including as amended. Other legislation, including a renamed version or a larger bill such as a defense authorization or government funding bill, counts if it

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the number of Senators voting Yea on final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms before Jan 1, 2027 is above 84, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Bipartisan American Affordability and "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $447
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 84 Yea votes in the Senate?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 80 Yea votes in the Senate?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 76 Yea votes in the Senate?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 72 Yea votes in the Senate?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 37.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 68 Yea votes in the Senate?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 64 Yea votes in the Senate?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $10
  DATA: [Yes: 57.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 60 Yea votes in the Senate?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $10
  DATA: [Yes: 62.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 56 Yea votes in the Senate?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $420
  DATA: [Yes: 68.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 32.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

How many Senators will vote for the American Affordability and Jobs Act?

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KALSHI

Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 56 Yea votes in the Senate?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 68.0¢No 32.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 56 Yea votes in the Senate?

If the number of Senators voting Yea on final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms before Jan 1, 2027 is above 56, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Bipartisan American Affordability and

KALSHI

Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 60 Yea votes in the Senate?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 62.0¢No 38.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 60 Yea votes in the Senate?

If the number of Senators voting Yea on final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms before Jan 1, 2027 is above 60, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Bipartisan American Affordability and

KALSHI

Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 64 Yea votes in the Senate?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 57.0¢No 43.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 64 Yea votes in the Senate?

If the number of Senators voting Yea on final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms before Jan 1, 2027 is above 64, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Bipartisan American Affordability and

KALSHI

Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 68 Yea votes in the Senate?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 51.0¢No 49.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 68 Yea votes in the Senate?

If the number of Senators voting Yea on final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms before Jan 1, 2027 is above 68, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Bipartisan American Affordability and

KALSHI

Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 72 Yea votes in the Senate?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 37.5¢No 62.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 72 Yea votes in the Senate?

If the number of Senators voting Yea on final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms before Jan 1, 2027 is above 72, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Bipartisan American Affordability and

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How many Senators will vote for the American Affordability and Jobs Act?

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Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 56 Yea votes in the Senate?

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Events (1)

How many Senators will vote for the American Affordability and Jobs Act?

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Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 56 Yea votes in the Senate?

Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 56 Yea votes in the Senate?

Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 60 Yea votes in the Senate?

Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 60 Yea votes in the Senate?

Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 64 Yea votes in the Senate?

Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 64 Yea votes in the Senate?

Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 68 Yea votes in the Senate?

Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 68 Yea votes in the Senate?

Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 72 Yea votes in the Senate?

Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 72 Yea votes in the Senate?

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Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 56 Yea votes in the Senate?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How many Senators will vote for the American Affordability and Jobs Act?

Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 56 Yea votes in the Senate?

Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 56 Yea votes in the Senate?

Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 60 Yea votes in the Senate?

Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 60 Yea votes in the Senate?

Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 64 Yea votes in the Senate?

Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 64 Yea votes in the Senate?

Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 68 Yea votes in the Senate?

Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 68 Yea votes in the Senate?

Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 72 Yea votes in the Senate?

Will final passage of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 or other legislation containing its core permitting reforms receive above 72 Yea votes in the Senate?

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