Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?

Name: Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
End: 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$42.00K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?

Vol

$42.00K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $42.00K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $42.00K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

22 markets tracked

Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(22)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	Poly	26%
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	Poly	12%
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 14, 2026?	Poly	11%
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 29, 2026?	Poly	10%
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 13, 2026?	Poly	10%
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 19, 2026?	Poly	8%
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 16, 2026?	Poly	6%
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 17, 2026?	Poly	5%
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 15, 2026?	Poly	4%
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026?	Poly	4%
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 22, 2026?	Poly	4%
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 28, 2026?	Poly	3%
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 12, 2026?	Poly	3%
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 30, 2026?	Poly	1%
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 18, 2026?	Poly	1%
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 23, 2026?	Poly	1%
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 31, 2026?	Poly	1%
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 24, 2026?	Poly	1%
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 26, 2026?	Poly	0%
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 21, 2026?	Poly	0%
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 25, 2026?	Poly	0%
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 11, 2026?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

26%

Top Probability

$42.00K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 1, 2026 (21 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public.

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public.

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization o"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $35.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $30.9K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.14)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 11, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $588
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 12, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $625
  DATA: [Yes: 2.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.4% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 13, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.3% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 14, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 15, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 16, 2026): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.7% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 16, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 17, 2026): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.8% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 17, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $95
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 18, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $278
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 19, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.8% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $822
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.9% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 21, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $860
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 22, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 23, 2026): Vol $343
  DATA: [Yes: 3.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.3% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 23, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 24, 2026): Vol $378
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 24, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $667
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 25, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $373
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 26, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 27, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 28, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 29, 2026): Vol $638
  DATA: [Yes: 3.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.7% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 29, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 30, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.7% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $128
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $128
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $13.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.6% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETTech