Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single binary contract on Polymarket for Bitcoin's price movement over a five-minute window, titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET" [1]. The rules say it "will resolve to 'Up' if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to 'Down'" [1].
The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader comparing this contract with a Bitcoin market on another platform should check whether that market uses the same data source, averaging method, and window. Wording differences like these can change what a "Up" outcome means.
The listed end time is 2026-10-20T05:45:00.000Z [1]. This is a closing time, not a statement that the contract has resolved. The evidence does not include a resolution result.
Reading the snapshot
The saved provider observation is from 2026-10-19T06:00:06Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-19T06:12:10Z [1]. These prices describe that moment only. The contract was listed as "active" at observation [1].
The quoted prices were Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The gap between them is small. The evidence does not explain why the prices stand where they do, and it does not include volume, liquidity, or trader counts, so it cannot show how deep the market is or how many participants hold each view.
The coverage record lists one market for this event, with all saved markets included and no partial sampling [1]. Even so, this covers only the saved provider event. The source notes that it "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Because this is a binary contract, there is no omitted outcome to compare.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show the current price, whether the contract has closed or resolved, or how the Chainlink stream moved during the window. Readers should not treat the 06:00 UTC prices as today's prices. Any comparison with another platform's contract should account for differences in rules, close times, and data sources before concluding that prices differ meaningfully.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-term price contract listed on Polymarket for the Bitcoin market, titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET" [1]. It belongs to the Crypto category and covers a five-minute window. The contract does not ask whether Bitcoin will be higher or lower than it is today. It asks whether the average price over the window ends up at or above the price at the start of the window [1]. The resolution rule is specific. The market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. Because the comparison uses a time-weighted average rather than a single trade, a brief spike or dip at one moment does not by itself decide the outcome. The rule also treats an exact tie as "Up" because of the "greater than or equal to" wording [1]. The rules name a specific data source. The resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream, which the source identifies by a Chainlink data streams address [1]. The source states that the market is about the price in that Chainlink data stream for BTC/USD, and not about any other sources or spot markets [1]. A reader comparing this contract to a Bitcoin price on an exchange should keep that distinction in mind. The saved record lists an end time of 2026-10-20T05:45:00.000Z [1]. The title gives the window as ending at 1:45AM ET, which is the same moment expressed in ET. This end time is the contract closing time from the rules, not a statement of when the outcome has been reported or paid. The record also shows the Up and Down prices at the observation time, which the application displays as a snapshot. Those prices are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities of Bitcoin rising.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Bitcoin's price over one five-minute window, as recorded by a specific Chainlink TWAP data stream [1]. Because it uses an average over the window compared with the starting price, it reflects the overall change across the period rather than the price at its final moment. The rules also make clear that the outcome depends only on that Chainlink stream. Readers should therefore read the resolution wording closely, since results could differ from figures on other platforms or exchanges that track Bitcoin differently [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes this contract resolve to Up?
The market resolves to Up if the Chainlink BTC/USD time-weighted average price over the title's time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
What happens if the average price exactly equals the starting price?
Under the stated rule, a result that is greater than or equal to the starting price resolves to Up, so an exact tie resolves to Up [1].
Which price data controls the outcome?
The rules name Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream as the resolution source and state that other sources and spot markets do not control the outcome [1].
When does the window close?
The saved record lists the end time as 2026-10-20T05:45:00.000Z, which matches 1:45AM ET in the title [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.