Snapshot observed 2026-11-12T03:00:06.009Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The market asks "What will the biggest earthquake be on November 11, 2026?" [1]. It "will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on November 11, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog" [1]. The observation period is the UTC calendar day, and magnitude refers to the "USGS preferred magnitude value" [1]. A USGS revision counts only if it is "published before 2:00 PM ET on November 12, 2026" [1].

The rules also say that if no earthquake data for that day is published by the cutoff, the market "will resolve to the 'Under 5.3' bracket" [1]. The provider lists an end time of 2026-11-12T19:00:00.000Z [1]. This is a listed close time, not a resolution, and the rules set the publication cutoff separately.

Each bracket is a separate Yes or No market. Brackets are inclusive of their endpoints, and magnitudes with more than one decimal place are rounded to the nearest tenth [1].

Reading the snapshot

The provider observation time is 2026-11-12T03:00:06.009Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-11-12T04:40:20.284Z [1]. These are capture times for a saved record. The prices below describe that snapshot only.

Yes prices in the snapshot are: Under 5.3 at 0.9745; 5.3 to 5.4 at 0.40; 5.5 to 5.6, 5.7 to 5.8, and 5.9 to 6.0 each at 0.4545; and 6.1 or more at 0.43 [1]. These Yes prices add to well over one, so they should not be read as a coherent probability split. The prices are snapshot values, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.

The list is ordered by Yes price, but that ordering only reflects sorting in the saved record. It does not indicate a forecast. No volume or trader count is supplied, so liquidity and participation cannot be assessed.

What remains uncertain

The sample covers one platform and one event: six markets, all included, with partialSample set to false [1]. The sample warning states that the saved markets "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Do not infer that unlisted magnitudes have lower prices.

The evidence does not explain why prices sit where they do. It also does not include the actual earthquake data or any recorded resolution. Because the observation day is UTC and the publication cutoff falls later, the outcome depends on USGS data published by that cutoff. Later revisions are not considered. No comparison with contracts on other platforms is made here, so these prices do not support any arbitrage conclusion.

References

1. Polymarket: What will the biggest earthquake be on November 11, 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-11-12T03:00:06.009Z.