
TIME Person of the Year 2026
PM $142.0K
1
28
TIME Person of the Year 2026

PM $142.0K
1
28
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Zohran Mamdani at 24.5%.
Polymarket
- Zohran Mamdani24.5%
- Mark Carney16%
- Pope Leo XIV14%
- Benjamin Netanyahu8%
- Donald Trump6.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $142.0K
Reported volume · provider units
28
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed person, group, entity, or thing is TIME Person of the Year for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A listed option will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they/it are explicitly named as Person of the Year. Additionally, the following rules apply: If multiple people are explicitly named person of the year, both people will be considered TIME Person of the Year. If the TIME Person of the Year is a concept, group or thing, a person may still be considered Person of the Year if they are also explicitly named person of the year, or if they are directly associated with the concept, group or thing named as person of the Year and are pictured on any official TIME cover announcing the Person of the Year. For example, in 2025 when TIME Person of the Year was “Architects of AI” the option for Sam Altman would have resolved to “Yes” as he was associated with the concept and is pictured on the Cover. However, if Sam Altman were Person of the Year, and ChatGPT was shown on the cover, this would not qualify for ChatGPT because ChatGPT is not a person. If the TIME Person of the Year is a specific concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. artificial intelligence), listed concepts or entities will be considered Person of the Year only if they are synonymous with the announced TIME Person of the Year. For example, if ChatGPT were Person of the Year, options for AI or LLMs would resolve to “No” because, while they are conceptually linked, they are not synonymous. If TIME uses language that does not refer to a specific, commonly-recognized, concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. 2011’s “The Protester” or 2017’s “The Silence Breakers”), the TIME Person of the Year feature article will be used to determine the meaning of the language defining TIME Person of the Year. In such cases, listed concepts, groups, or things will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they can be reasonably understood as equivalent to the meaning of the language used to define TIME Person of the Year. For example, the option for “The Me Too Movement” would have resolved to “Yes” in 2017. If for any reason the TIME's Person of the Year is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the TIME magazine cover or covers announcing the 2026 TIME Person of the Year; however, the TIME Person of the Year Feature article may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
Each market in this snapshot asks whether a named person, group, or thing will be TIME Person of the Year for 2026 [1]. The resolution rules say a listed option resolves Yes only if it is explicitly named as Person of the Year. The rules also cover cases where the honoree is a concept or group, and they allow a person to qualify if they are directly associated with that concept and pictured on the official cover [1]. A concept listed as an option qualifies only if it is synonymous with the announced honoree [1].
The rules set a fallback deadline. If TIME has not announced the Person of the Year by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves No [1]. The saved event lists an end time of 2027-07-01T03:59:00.000Z [1]. The rules also name the resolution source as the TIME cover or covers announcing the 2026 honoree, with the feature article possibly used as well [1].
Most of the included markets show an end date of 2026-12-31, but two show 2027-07-01T03:59:00.000Z, matching the listed event end time [1]. These fields differ, so readers should check each contract's own close time before comparing them. A date in the rules is a deadline, not an announced event date.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-19T08:07:17.168Z [1]. These are point-in-time snapshots, not current or executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.
The sample is partial. It includes 12 of 28 markets from this one provider event [1]. The selection ordered markets by Yes price, highest first, then by volume [1]. The lowest included Yes price is 0.0495 for Sam Altman, but this does not show that omitted options are priced lower. Their prices are not in the evidence.
The highest included Yes price is 0.285 for Zohran Mamdani, with Mark Carney at 0.165 and Pope Leo XIV at 0.12 [1]. These figures are only comparable within this single event. The sample does not support ranking the full field.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices are at these levels. It also does not show trading activity, trader counts, or liquidity. Volume is excluded from these claims because it does not measure those things.
Prices in different markets are not averaged here, and a difference in price is not an arbitrage signal. Contracts can differ in wording, close times, and the conditions for a Yes result. The evidence does not say whether TIME will announce the 2026 honoree, or when.
References
- Polymarket: TIME Person of the Year 2026. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
TIME Person of the Year is an annual issue of the American news magazine that features a figure chosen for its influence. Wikipedia describes it as an issue featuring a person, group, idea, or object that "for better or for worse ... has done the most to influence the events of the year" [2]. This article covers the Polymarket contract titled "TIME Person of the Year 2026" [1], which asks whether a listed option will be named TIME Person of the Year for 2026. The contract resolves to "Yes" if the listed person, group, entity, or thing is explicitly named as the 2026 Person of the Year. If several people are explicitly named Person of the Year, each of them is treated as the Person of the Year [1]. The rules are more detailed when the honoree is a concept, group, or thing. In that case, a person can still count if they are explicitly named, or if they are directly associated with the honoree and pictured on an official TIME cover announcing it. The rules give an example from 2025, when "Architects of AI" was the honoree and Sam Altman was treated as qualifying because he was associated with that concept and pictured on the cover [1]. A specific concept, group, or thing qualifies a listed option only if the option is synonymous with it, and conceptually related options do not qualify on that basis alone [1]. Where TIME uses language that does not refer to a specific, commonly recognized concept, the feature article is used to interpret the wording [1]. The contract resolves to "No" if TIME's Person of the Year is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET [1]. That date is a contract deadline, not an announced publication date. The stated resolution source is the TIME magazine cover or covers announcing the 2026 Person of the Year, and the feature article may also be used [1]. The saved event lists 28 markets in total, and 12 are included in this snapshot [1]. The included names are ranked by Yes price, highest first, and the sample does not show the remaining 16 markets. The names shown include Zohran Mamdani, Mark Carney, Pope Leo XIV, Benjamin Netanyahu, and Dario Amodei, among others [1]. Their inclusion reflects only that they are listed options in this event. Prices are snapshots from the provider observation time and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Historical Context
The award began under the name Man of the Year, and the title was Man of the Year or Woman of the Year until 1999 [2]. The TIME website or a partner organization also runs an annual online reader's poll, which has no effect on the selection. No poll was held in 2023 or 2024 [2]. This background describes the award's history and does not provide a present-day update on the 2026 selection.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a specific listed option will be named TIME Person of the Year for 2026, as determined by TIME's cover and feature article [1]. Because the magazine describes the honor as going to the figure that has done the most to influence the year's events [2], the contract's rules are central to how a "Yes" outcome is determined. Its treatment of groups, concepts, and associated individuals means that an option's exact wording can affect whether it qualifies [1]. The deadline and resolution source also determine when and how the market settles [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does a reader poll decide the Person of the Year?
No. The online reader's poll run by TIME or a partner organization has no effect on the selection, and no poll was held in 2023 or 2024 [2].
How does the contract treat a concept, such as artificial intelligence, as the honoree?
A listed concept or entity counts only if it is synonymous with the announced honoree. A person can count if they are explicitly named or are directly associated with the honoree and pictured on an official TIME cover [1].
What happens if TIME does not announce the honoree by the deadline?
The contract resolves to "No" if the Person of the Year is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET [1].
What is the resolution source?
The resolution source is the TIME magazine cover or covers announcing the 2026 Person of the Year, and the TIME Person of the Year feature article may also be used [1].
Does a market price show how likely an option is to win?
Not on its own. The prices are snapshots at the provider observation time and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

Time's Person of the Year for 2026
K 1.89M contracts
The Game Awards: Game of the Year
PM $88.5K
IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of 2026?
K 8.3K contracts
Golden Joystick Awards: Ultimate Game of the Year Winner
PM $13.6K
CMA Awards: Song of the Year
PM $9.5K · K 6.4K contractsWill “Choosin' Texas” by Ella Langley win Song of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards?
Kalshi: Will Choosin’ Texas win Song of the Year at the 60th Country Music Association Awards?
Related contracts
Will “Choosin' Texas” by Ella Langley win Single of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards?
Kalshi: Will Choosin’ Texas win Single of the Year at the 60th Country Music Association Awards?
Related contracts
Will “Choosin' Texas” by Ella Langley win Song of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards?
Kalshi: Will Choosin’ Texas win Single of the Year at the 60th Country Music Association Awards?
Related contracts
Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.
Saved prices; check contract rules.

Top artist on Spotify in 2026?
PM $1.74M · K 820.2K contractsWill Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?
Kalshi: Who will be the top Spotify artist this year? (Bad Bunny)
Same question, fine print differs
Will Taylor Swift be the top artist for 2026?
Kalshi: Who will be the top Spotify artist this year? (Taylor Swift)
Same question, fine print differs
Will Drake be the top artist for 2026?
Kalshi: Who will be the top Spotify artist this year? (Drake)
Same question, fine print differs
Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.
Saved prices; check contract rules.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

