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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET
Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports
Marshall Thundering Herd vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves
Total Volume
$46.80K
Events
1
Markets
1
Marshall Thundering Herd vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves
Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison
Polymarket
1
markets · $46.80K
Kalshi
0
markets · $0.00
Price Spread
0.0%avg
max 0.0%
Arbitrage
0
of 0 cross-platform
Volume DistributionTotal: $46.80K
100%
Polymarket leads
Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph
1 market tracked
Marshall Thundering Herd vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves
No data available
Single-Platform Markets(1)
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 51% |
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
51%
Top Probability
$46.80K
Volume
1
Markets
1
Platforms
About This Event
This event is for the CBB game between Marshall Thundering Herd and Arkansas State Red Wolves on January 31 at 3:00 PM ET. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting
Prediction markets show this college basketball game is essentially a coin flip. Traders collectively give Marshall a very slight edge, with a 54% chance to win. This means if you could replay this exact matchup 100 times, markets expect Marshall would win about 54 of them. It’s the betting equivalent of saying “too close to call.”
Why the Market Sees It This Way
The near-even odds reflect how these teams match up this season. Both Marshall and Coastal Carolina have struggled in Sun Belt Conference play. Entering this game, their conference records are nearly identical, placing them in the bottom half of the standings. Neither team has shown a consistent ability to win on the road, which adds uncertainty since this game is at Coastal Carolina. Recent performance is also a factor. Both teams have lost more games than they’ve won in February, so traders aren’t seeing a clear, hot hand to bet on. The market is effectively saying these are two evenly matched, mid-to-lower tier teams in their conference.
Key Dates and Events to Watch
The key event is the game itself, tipping off at 1:00 PM ET on February 21. The only thing that could shift the prediction now is last-minute news, like a key player being ruled out due to injury or illness after the market closes. If the game is postponed, the market will stay open until it is played. A full cancellation would result in a 50-50 settlement.
How Reliable Are These Predictions?
For regular season college basketball games, prediction markets are generally reliable but not perfect. They efficiently aggregate all public information, like team records, injuries, and home-court advantage. For a game like this with minimal national attention, the trading volume is very low (only about $3,000 total). Low volume can sometimes make prices more volatile or less informed. While markets are good at setting lines, an actual coin-flip game can obviously go either way, so the 54% probability should be seen as an estimate of chance, not a guarantee.
Current Market Outlook
Prediction markets assign Marshall a 54% probability of defeating Coastal Carolina. This price indicates a slight edge for the Thundering Herd, but the market views the game as essentially a coin flip. With only $3,000 in total trading volume, liquidity is thin. This low volume means the current price is more sensitive to individual bets and may not reflect a deep consensus.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
The narrow odds align with the teams' competitive positions in the Sun Belt Conference. Marshall entered this matchup with a 12-14 overall record, while Coastal Carolina stood at 8-17. Neither team is a conference powerhouse, which typically leads to close betting lines. Marshall's slight favoritism likely stems from playing at home in the Henderson Center, where they hold a 9-5 record this season. Historical performance against common opponents also shows both teams have struggled, contributing to the uncertainty priced into the market.
What Could Change These Odds
The primary catalyst is the game itself, tipping off at 1:00 PM ET on February 21. Any last-minute news regarding player availability, such as an injury to a key starter, could shift the odds significantly on this low-volume market. A sharp, concentrated bet from a well-informed trader could also move the price more than on a liquid market. The 50-50 cancellation rule is a standard provision but is not a active factor unless severe weather or other unforeseen events intervene.
Cross-Platform Analysis
This market is trading exclusively on Polymarket. The absence of a comparable market on Kalshi eliminates arbitrage opportunities and cross-verification. The isolated pricing on a single platform with minimal volume suggests traders should view the 54% probability as a soft indicator rather than a hardened forecast. The market needs more participation to establish a confident price.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.