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9
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Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Benin on January 11, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Benin National Assembly (Assemblée nationale) in this election. If voting in the Benin parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party
Prediction markets are pricing in a near-certain victory for the incumbent Union Progressiste pour le Renouveau (UPR) in the 2026 Benin parliamentary election. On Kalshi, the "Yes" contract for a UPR win trades at 98 cents, implying a 98% probability. On Polymarket, the equivalent contract trades slightly lower at approximately 93 cents, reflecting a 93% probability. This combined pricing indicates the market views the outcome as virtually assured, with the minimal spread between platforms suggesting high consensus. The election, scheduled for January 11, 2026, will determine which party wins the most seats in the 109-member National Assembly.
The overwhelming confidence stems from the UPR's consolidated political dominance under President Patrice Talon. Since his election in 2016, Talon's political bloc has systematically secured control, winning a supermajority in the 2019 legislative elections after a controversial electoral reform barred most opposition parties. The subsequent 2023 parliamentary election saw the UPR and its allies win 81 seats, further entrenching its power. The market reflects a view that the political landscape remains firmly controlled, with a fragmented and weakened opposition unable to mount a credible challenge. Furthermore, Benin's recent economic growth, averaging around 6% annually, may bolster the incumbent's standing.
While the market sees minimal risk, a drastic shift would require an unforeseen political crisis or a major split within the ruling coalition before the January 2026 vote. Significant public unrest driven by economic discontent or a successful legal challenge to electoral procedures could also introduce uncertainty. However, given the current trajectory of political consolidation and the absence of a visible, unified opposition movement, such scenarios are considered low-probability events by traders. The market will closely monitor candidate registration and campaign periods in late 2025 for any signs of a credible challenger emerging.
A modest 5-percentage-point spread exists between Kalshi (98%) and Polymarket (93%). This discrepancy likely stems from differences in trader demographics and platform-specific liquidity rather than a fundamental disagreement on the outcome. The Kalshi price indicates near-absolute certainty, while the Polymarket price retains a slight margin for tail-risk events. This creates a narrow arbitrage opportunity, but the spread is not wide enough to suggest a major informational asymmetry. The convergence of both prices above 90% underscores the strong consensus that the UPR will maintain its parliamentary majority.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The 2026 Beninese parliamentary election will determine the composition of the National Assembly, the unicameral legislature of Benin, for a four-year term. This election is a critical political event that will shape the country's governance and policy direction. The market specifically resolves based on which political party or coalition wins the most seats in the 109-seat assembly, with tie-breaking mechanisms defined by vote share and government formation. The election occurs within a political landscape that has undergone significant transformation since 2019, marked by the introduction of a new electoral code and a period of political tension. Interest in this prediction stems from its implications for democratic consolidation, economic policy continuity, and regional stability in West Africa. Observers are closely watching to see if the current ruling party can maintain its dominance or if opposition forces can mount a credible challenge under the revised electoral framework.
Benin's modern multi-party democracy began with the National Conference of 1990, which established a presidential system with a powerful National Assembly. For over two decades, power alternated peacefully between rivals, earning Benin a reputation as a model of democracy in Africa. The 2015 presidential election saw businessman Patrice Talon, running as an independent, defeat the incumbent's chosen successor. His first term initiated major political reforms. The most consequential shift came ahead of the 2019 parliamentary elections. A new electoral code was adopted, introducing a mixed system of proportional representation and first-past-the-post, alongside stricter requirements for party funding and candidate sponsorship. Most major opposition parties, claiming the rules were designed to exclude them, boycotted the vote. This resulted in a National Assembly composed entirely of two pro-Talon parties: the Progressive Union and the Republican Bloc, which won 47 and 36 seats respectively. The 2021 presidential election, which Talon won with 86.3% of the vote amid an opposition boycott, further consolidated this political reality. The 2026 election will therefore test whether this new, more restricted party system has become entrenched or if a competitive multi-party dynamic can re-emerge.
The outcome of the 2026 parliamentary election will directly influence Benin's economic trajectory and governance for the latter half of President Talon's potential second term. A strong pro-presidential majority would likely ensure the continuation of Talon's economic policies, including the government's heavy investment in infrastructure through the 'Revealing Benin' project and its dominant role in the cotton sector, which is vital to the national economy. Conversely, a significant opposition presence could challenge these policies and scrutinize government spending. Politically, a genuinely competitive election would be seen as a positive step for democratic renewal in a region facing democratic backsliding. A repeat of the 2019 boycott scenario, however, could deepen political alienation and social tensions. The election's conduct will also be closely monitored by international partners and investors, affecting Benin's credibility and access to foreign aid and investment, which are crucial for its development goals.
As of late 2024, the political landscape is in a pre-electoral phase. The major pro-government parties, the Progressive Union and Republican Bloc, maintain their parliamentary majority. Opposition activities remain constrained, with key figures from historical parties like the FCBE and the Democratic Party operating in a restricted space. The Autonomous National Electoral Commission (CENA) is preparing for the electoral cycle, though the official calendar for candidate registration and coalition certification has not yet been published. Political discourse is beginning to focus on the upcoming elections, with debates centering on the potential for opposition participation under the current electoral framework and the economic record of the Talon administration.
Benin uses a mixed electoral system. 24 members are elected by first-past-the-post in single-member constituencies, while 83 members are elected by proportional representation from a single nationwide constituency. A party must secure at least 10% of the national vote to gain proportional representation seats.
The current president is Patrice Talon, elected in 2016 and re-elected in 2021. The 1990 constitution limits presidents to two terms. Having served two terms, Talon is not eligible to run in the 2026 presidential election, but his influence over allied parliamentary parties remains strong.
In the 2019 parliamentary election, only two pro-President Talon parties won seats due to an opposition boycott. The Progressive Union won 47 seats and the Republican Bloc won 36 seats, giving the presidential coalition 83 of the 109 total seats.
The National Assembly is Benin's sole legislative chamber. It votes on laws, approves the national budget, and oversees government action. A supportive majority is crucial for a president to pass their legislative agenda and govern effectively.
The next parliamentary election is constitutionally scheduled for 2026. The exact date will be set by decree, but it typically occurs in the first few months of the year, often aligned with the presidential election cycle.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
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| 98% | 97% | 1% |
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