Will the Jones Act be repealed? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will the Jones Act be repealed?

Total Volume

$1.02K

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Will the Jones Act be repealed?

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $1.02K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.02K

100%

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1 market tracked

Will repeal of the Jones Act becomes law before Jan 4, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will repeal of the Jones Act becomes law before Jan 4, 2027?	Kalshi	6%

AI Analysis

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Top Probability

$1.02K

Volume

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About This Event

Before Jan 4, 2027 If repeal of the Jones Act becomes law before Jan 4, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market will pay out if a bill becomes law that repeals the Jones Act, also known as the Merchant Marine Act of 1920 before January 4 2027 (the end of the 119th congress). Additionally, if the general prohibition imposed by Jones Act on foreign-built, foreign-owned, or foreign-flagged vessels from engaging in coastwise trade within the United States is repealed or undone by newer l

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will the Jones Act be repealed?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 4, 2027

If repeal of the Jones Act becomes law before Jan 4, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market will pay out if a bill becomes law that repeals the Jones Act, also known as the Merchant Marine Act of 1920 before January 4 2027 (the end of the 119th congress).
Additionally, if the general prohibition imposed by Jones Act on foreign-built, foreign-owned, or foreign-flagged vessels from engaging in coastwise trade within the United States is repealed or undone by newer l

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If repeal of the Jones Act becomes law before Jan 4, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market will pay out if a bill becomes law that repeals the Jones Act, also known as the Merchant Marine Act of 1920 before January 4 2027 (the end of the 119th congress).
Additionally, i"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $407.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will repeal of the Jones Act becomes law before Jan 4, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 4, 2027): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

6¢

Kalshi

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Will the Jones Act be repealed?

Will the Jones Act be repealed?

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Will repeal of the Jones Act becomes law before Jan 4, 2027?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Events (1)