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Arkansas Senate Election Winner

Arkansas Senate Election Winner
Vol

PM $103.3K

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Events

1

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Markets

2

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Tom Cotton (R) at 94.8%.

Polymarket

  1. Tom Cotton (R)94.8%
  2. Hallie Shoffner (D)5.3%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $103.3K

Reported volume · provider units

2

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

KalshiPolitics
Arkansas Senate margin of victory

Arkansas Senate margin of victory

K 10.6K contracts
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Arkansas be at least 2 percentage points?Yes 91.3%
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Arkansas be at least 4 percentage points?Yes 88.1%
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Arkansas be at least 6 percentage points?Yes 81%
+14 moreNext deadline Nov 3, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Arkansas Senate election: Tom Cotton vote percent

Arkansas Senate election: Tom Cotton vote percent

K 932.9 contracts
Will Tom Cotton receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the 2026 Arkansas Senate election?Yes 96%
Will Tom Cotton receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 Arkansas Senate election?Yes 92%
Will Tom Cotton receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the 2026 Arkansas Senate election?Yes 85%
+8 moreNext deadline Nov 3, 2027 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
Arkansas Senate Election Margin of Victory

Arkansas Senate Election Margin of Victory

PM $16.0K
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Arkansas Senate election by 10%-15%?Yes 37.2%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Arkansas Senate election by 5%-10%?Yes 25%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Arkansas Senate election by 15%-20%?Yes 19.5%
+7 moreNext deadline Nov 4, 2026 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Arkansas Senate General Election: voter turnout

Arkansas Senate General Election: voter turnout

K 7.9K contracts
Will the total vote count for all participants in Arkansas Senate General Election be above 750000?Yes 95%
Will the total vote count for all participants in Arkansas Senate General Election be above 800000?Yes 93%
Will the total vote count for all participants in Arkansas Senate General Election be above 850000?Yes 82%
+7 moreNext deadline Nov 3, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Arkansas Senate election: Hallie Shoffner vote percent

Arkansas Senate election: Hallie Shoffner vote percent

K 1.3K contracts
Will Hallie Shoffner receive at least 32% of the popular vote in the 2026 Arkansas Senate election?Yes 97.5%
Will Hallie Shoffner receive at least 34% of the popular vote in the 2026 Arkansas Senate election?Yes 97%
Will Hallie Shoffner receive at least 36% of the popular vote in the 2026 Arkansas Senate election?Yes 95.5%
+7 moreNext deadline Nov 3, 2027 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
Arkansas Senate Election: Turnout

Arkansas Senate Election: Turnout

PM $45.7K
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas be between 900,000 and 975,000?Yes 49.5%
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas be between 975,000 and 1,050,000?Yes 23%
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas be between 825,000 and 900,000?Yes 13.5%
+5 moreNext deadline Nov 4, 2026 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Same-question pairs

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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

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