Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Next Senate Democratic Leader?

Total Volume

$141.70K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Next Senate Democratic Leader?

Vol

$141.70K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $141.70K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $141.70K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

13 markets tracked

Will Chuck Schumer win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?

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Single-Platform Markets(13)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Chuck Schumer win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?	Kalshi	80%
Will Chris Murphy win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?	Kalshi	8%
Will Brian Schatz win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?	Kalshi	7%
Will Chris Van Hollen win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?	Kalshi	5%
Will Patty Murray win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?	Kalshi	2%
Will Cory Booker win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Amy Klobuchar win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Jacky Rosen win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Raphael Warnock win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Tammy Baldwin win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Ruben Gallego win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Mark Warner win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?	Kalshi	1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

80%

Top Probability

$141.70K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

in 2028 If X wins the next Senate Democratic Leader election, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. For referendums, "Yes" and "No" are the options. For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system, electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable, is the winner.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next Senate Democratic Leader?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** in 2028

If X wins the next Senate Democratic Leader election, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. For referendums, "Yes" and "No" are the options. For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system, electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable, is the winner. 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Tammy Baldwin wins the next Senate Democratic Leader election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $141.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Tammy Baldwin win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2028): Vol $10.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Raphael Warnock win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2028): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Ruben Gallego win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2028): Vol $209
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Patty Murray win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2028): Vol $9.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.6% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Mark Warner win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2028): Vol $86
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Jacky Rosen win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2028): Vol $109
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Jon Ossoff win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2028): Vol $699
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Chuck Schumer win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2028): Vol $28.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 80.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Chris Murphy win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2028): Vol $36.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.3% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Chris Van Hollen win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2028): Vol $19.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Cory Booker win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2028): Vol $4.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Brian Schatz win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2028): Vol $23.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.2% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Amy Klobuchar win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2028): Vol $6.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Next Senate Democratic Leader?

Volume$141.70K

Markets13

13 of 13

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KALSHI

Will Chuck Schumer win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 80.0¢No 20.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Chuck Schumer win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?

If Chuck Schumer wins the next Senate Democratic Leader election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins

KALSHI

Will Chris Murphy win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 7.8¢No 92.3¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Chris Murphy win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?

If Chris Murphy wins the next Senate Democratic Leader election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.

KALSHI

Will Brian Schatz win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.8¢No 93.2¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Brian Schatz win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?

If Brian Schatz wins the next Senate Democratic Leader election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.

KALSHI

Will Chris Van Hollen win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 5.5¢No 94.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Chris Van Hollen win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?

If Chris Van Hollen wins the next Senate Democratic Leader election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats w

KALSHI

Will Patty Murray win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.4¢No 97.6¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Patty Murray win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?

If Patty Murray wins the next Senate Democratic Leader election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.

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8¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/U7LcqV" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Next Senate Democratic Leader?"></iframe>

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Next Senate Democratic Leader?

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Will Chuck Schumer win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?

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About This Event

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Events (1)

Next Senate Democratic Leader?

Markets (13)

Will Chuck Schumer win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?

Will Chuck Schumer win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?

Will Chris Murphy win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?

Will Chris Murphy win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?

Will Brian Schatz win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?

Will Brian Schatz win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?

Will Chris Van Hollen win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?

Will Chris Van Hollen win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?

Will Patty Murray win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?

Will Patty Murray win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?

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Will Chuck Schumer win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Next Senate Democratic Leader?

Will Chuck Schumer win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?

Will Chuck Schumer win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?

Will Chris Murphy win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?

Will Chris Murphy win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?

Will Brian Schatz win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?

Will Brian Schatz win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?

Will Chris Van Hollen win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?

Will Chris Van Hollen win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?

Will Patty Murray win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?

Will Patty Murray win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?

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