What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting

Prediction markets currently show near-unanimous agreement that Dallas will not see a warm February day next year. Traders give a 100% probability to temperatures staying at or below 65°F on February 20, 2026. In simpler terms, the collective intelligence of these markets is essentially certain the high will be cool for Texas. This is a very high-confidence forecast, with no real money being wagered on the possibility of a warmer day.

Why the Market Sees It This Way

Two main factors explain this overwhelming prediction. First, the historical climate data for Dallas in late February strongly supports it. The average high temperature around February 20 is about 63°F. While occasional warm spells can occur, the baseline expectation is for mild, not hot, weather. Second, the market structure itself influences the odds. This prediction is part of a set of questions covering every possible temperature range. When the market for "65°F or below" hit 100%, it mechanically meant all other, warmer outcomes dropped to 0%. This shows traders see no credible path to a high above 65, aligning perfectly with the typical climatic pattern for the date.

Key Dates and Events to Watch

The only key date is the resolution date itself: February 20, 2026. Unlike political or economic events, there are no scheduled announcements or decisions that will shift these weather odds. The forecast will only change if reliable, long-range weather models begin to show a highly anomalous and sustained warm pattern developing as the date approaches, which is currently not indicated. The market will resolve based on the official high temperature recorded at Dallas Love Field airport on that day.

How Reliable Are These Predictions?

For near-term weather, prediction markets are generally accurate when they reflect strong historical averages, as seen here. However, their true reliability for a single day's forecast over a year in advance is untested and inherently limited. They are not a substitute for meteorological science. This market is less about forecasting specific weather and more about pricing the overwhelming likelihood of a normal, cool late-winter day based on clear climate history. The 100% probability mainly tells us that a warm outlier is considered extremely improbable, which is a reasonable, data-backed assumption.