Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIFinancials

2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 16, 2026?

Total Volume

$405.25

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 16, 2026?

Vol

$405.25

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $405.25

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $405.25

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

15 markets tracked

Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.60% on Oct 16, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(15)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.60% on Oct 16, 2026?	Kalshi	91%
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.62% on Oct 16, 2026?	Kalshi	88%
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.64% on Oct 16, 2026?	Kalshi	84%
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.66% on Oct 16, 2026?	Kalshi	81%
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.68% on Oct 16, 2026?	Kalshi	76%
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.72% on Oct 16, 2026?	Kalshi	71%
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.70% on Oct 16, 2026?	Kalshi	71%
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.74% on Oct 16, 2026?	Kalshi	60%
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.76% on Oct 16, 2026?	Kalshi	53%
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.78% on Oct 16, 2026?	Kalshi	46%
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.80% on Oct 16, 2026?	Kalshi	39%
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.82% on Oct 16, 2026?	Kalshi	33%
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.84% on Oct 16, 2026?	Kalshi	27%
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.86% on Oct 16, 2026?	Kalshi	22%
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.88% on Oct 16, 2026?	Kalshi	18%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

91%

Top Probability

$405.25

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

On Oct 16, 2026 If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above X on Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 16, 2026, or one week following Oct 16, 2026.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 16, 2026?
**Category:** Financials | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Oct 16, 2026

If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above X on Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 16, 2026, or one week following Oct 16, 2026.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.88% on Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 16, 2026, or one week following Oct 16, 2026."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $405
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.88% on Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $67
  DATA: [Yes: 18.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.86% on Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.84% on Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.82% on Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 33.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.80% on Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 39.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.78% on Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 46.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.76% on Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 53.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.74% on Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $15
  DATA: [Yes: 59.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 40.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.72% on Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 71.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.70% on Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 71.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.68% on Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 76.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 24.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.66% on Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 81.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 19.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.64% on Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $217
  DATA: [Yes: 84.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 16.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.62% on Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 87.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 12.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.60% on Oct 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 91.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIFinancials

2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 16, 2026?

Volume$405.25

Markets15

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KALSHI

Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.60% on Oct 16, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 91.0¢No 9.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

CLOSING SOON

Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.60% on Oct 16, 2026?

If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.60% on Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 16, 2026, or one week following Oct 16, 2026.

KALSHI

Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.62% on Oct 16, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 87.5¢No 12.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

CLOSING SOON

Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.62% on Oct 16, 2026?

If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.62% on Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 16, 2026, or one week following Oct 16, 2026.

KALSHI

Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.64% on Oct 16, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 84.0¢No 16.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

CLOSING SOON

Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.64% on Oct 16, 2026?

If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.64% on Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 16, 2026, or one week following Oct 16, 2026.

KALSHI

Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.66% on Oct 16, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 81.0¢No 19.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

CLOSING SOON

Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.66% on Oct 16, 2026?

If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.66% on Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 16, 2026, or one week following Oct 16, 2026.

KALSHI

Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.68% on Oct 16, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 76.0¢No 24.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

CLOSING SOON

Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.68% on Oct 16, 2026?

If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.68% on Oct 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 16, 2026, or one week following Oct 16, 2026.

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/UEDf5k" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 16, 2026?"></iframe>

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2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 16, 2026?

2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 16, 2026?

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Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.60% on Oct 16, 2026?

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Events (1)

2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 16, 2026?

Markets (15)

Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.60% on Oct 16, 2026?

Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.60% on Oct 16, 2026?

Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.62% on Oct 16, 2026?

Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.62% on Oct 16, 2026?

Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.64% on Oct 16, 2026?

Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.64% on Oct 16, 2026?

Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.66% on Oct 16, 2026?

Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.66% on Oct 16, 2026?

Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.68% on Oct 16, 2026?

Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.68% on Oct 16, 2026?

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Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.60% on Oct 16, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 16, 2026?

Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.60% on Oct 16, 2026?

Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.60% on Oct 16, 2026?

Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.62% on Oct 16, 2026?

Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.62% on Oct 16, 2026?

Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.64% on Oct 16, 2026?

Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.64% on Oct 16, 2026?

Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.66% on Oct 16, 2026?

Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.66% on Oct 16, 2026?

Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.68% on Oct 16, 2026?

Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.68% on Oct 16, 2026?

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