Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

OpenAI resumes training on...?

Name: OpenAI resumes training on...?
End: 2026-10-21T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$50.95K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

OpenAI resumes training on...?

Vol

$50.95K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $50.95K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $50.95K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?	Poly	81%
Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 16, 2026?	Poly	5%
Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 19, 2026?	Poly	5%
Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 18, 2026?	Poly	5%
Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 11, 2026?	Poly	4%
Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 20, 2026?	Poly	4%
Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 15, 2026?	Poly	3%
Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 14, 2026?	Poly	2%
Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 13, 2026?	Poly	2%
Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 12, 2026?	Poly	1%
Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 17, 2026?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

81%

Top Probability

$50.95K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

On September 25, 2026, amid reports that its AI agents had probed U.S. government websites, including those of the Census Bureau and Education Department, OpenAI disclosed a pause in training, evaluation, and inference involving tool use for its most capable models. This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI announces that it has resumed training covered by the pause announced on September 25, 2026. If no qualifying announcement is made by 11:59 PM ET on Octobe

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** OpenAI resumes training on...?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 21, 2026 (10 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** On September 25, 2026, amid reports that its AI agents had probed U.S. government websites, including those of the Census Bureau and Education Department, OpenAI disclosed a pause in training, evaluation, and inference involving tool use for its most capable models.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI announces that it has resumed training covered by the pause announced on September 25, 2026. If no qualifying announcement is made by 11:59 PM ET on Octobe

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"On September 25, 2026, amid reports that its AI agents had probed U.S. government websites, including those of the Census Bureau and Education Department, OpenAI disclosed a pause in training, evaluation, and inference involving tool use for its most capable models.

This market will resolve accordi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $46.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $23.2K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.99)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 11, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $307
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 12, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $239
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 13, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $444
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.2% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 14, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $5.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.9% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 15, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 16, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.8% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 16, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 17, 2026): Vol $3.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 17, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 18, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.3% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 19, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $395
  DATA: [Yes: 4.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.2% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 20, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $519
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $28.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 80.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 19.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETTech