Events
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Senators vs. Flames
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Polymarket
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Kalshi
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for March 5 at 9:00PM ET: If the Senators win, the market will resolve to "Senators". If the Flames win, the market will resolve to "Flames". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will b
Prediction markets currently see the total goals scored in the Ottawa Senators versus Calgary Flames game as essentially a coin flip. Traders collectively give a slight edge, about a 53% chance, to the game having more than 4.5 total goals. In simpler terms, the market is saying there is just over a 50/50 probability that we’ll see at least five goals scored between the two teams.
Two main factors are likely shaping this nearly even split. First, both teams have defensive challenges. The Senators and Flames are in the bottom half of the league in goals allowed per game this season. Games featuring teams that struggle defensively often lead to higher scores. Second, the outcome depends heavily on which version of each team shows up. Both clubs have had inconsistent performances, with stretches of high-scoring games followed by tighter, lower-scoring contests. The market’s uncertainty reflects the unpredictable nature of two teams that can be porous on defense but haven’t always capitalized on offense.
The main event is the game itself on Tuesday, March 5, at 9:00 PM ET. The only developments that could shift predictions before then are last-minute roster changes, particularly regarding starting goaltenders. The announced starting goalies on game day often cause the final probability to move, as a hot goalie or a backup playing can significantly influence the expected goal total.
For NHL over/under totals, prediction markets have a mixed but generally useful track record. They efficiently aggregate information like team stats, injuries, and starting goalies, often providing a well-calibrated estimate. However, hockey is a low-scoring sport with inherent randomness. A single lucky bounce or an outstanding goaltending performance can easily swing a game under the total, even when the pre-game odds favor a high score. These forecasts are a good snapshot of collective expectation, but they are far from a guarantee.
The Polymarket over/under for the Senators vs. Flames game is priced at 53% for "Over 4.5" total goals. This indicates a slight market expectation that the combined score will exceed 4.5 goals. A 53% probability translates to an implied odds of -113, suggesting the market sees a marginally higher chance of a higher-scoring game but views the outcome as essentially a coin flip. The "Under 4.5" contract is correspondingly priced at 47%.
Two primary hockey analytics are shaping this tight line. First, both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in goals against per game this season, with defensive metrics showing consistent vulnerability. The Flames and Senators have each allowed over 3.1 goals per game on average, a statistical profile that typically supports higher-scoring contests. Second, the goaltending situation for this matchup is unstable. Neither team has a confirmed starter with elite save percentage numbers, and both have used multiple goalies recently due to performance issues. This uncertainty directly increases the probability of goals from defensive mistakes.
The single largest catalyst will be the confirmed starting goaltenders, usually announced the morning of the game on March 5. If either team names a top-tier goalie returning from injury or opts for their statistically strongest netminder, the odds for "Under 4.5" will likely rise sharply. Conversely, confirmation of struggling backups would push the "Over" probability well above 60%. Pre-game injury reports for key defensive players, particularly top-pairing defensemen, will also cause immediate price movement in the hours before puck drop. The market is currently priced for average defensive execution, so any news deviating from that baseline will shift the line.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the outcome of a National Hockey League regular season game between the Ottawa Senators and the Calgary Flames, scheduled for March 5 at 9:00 PM Eastern Time. The market will resolve based on the official game result, including any overtime or shootout. If the Senators win, the market resolves to 'Senators.' If the Flames win, it resolves to 'Flames.' Special rules cover postponements and cancellations. This game is part of the 2023-2024 NHL season, where both teams are competing for playoff positioning in their respective conferences. The Senators are in the Atlantic Division of the Eastern Conference, while the Flames are in the Pacific Division of the Western Conference. Their only scheduled meeting this season makes this a unique inter-conference matchup. Interest in the market stems from fans, bettors, and analysts tracking team performance, player injuries, and recent trends to forecast the result. The game's outcome has implications for the standings and each franchise's trajectory as the regular season progresses toward the playoffs.
The Ottawa Senators and Calgary Flames have been NHL franchises for decades, though they have rarely been direct rivals due to being in different conferences. The Senators joined the league in 1992, while the Flames relocated to Calgary from Atlanta in 1980. Historically, matchups have been infrequent, occurring only once or twice per regular season. One notable historical connection is the 2004 Stanley Cup Final, where the Flames, led by Jarome Iginla, faced the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Senators' most recent deep playoff run was a trip to the 2017 Eastern Conference Final. In terms of head-to-head results, the all-time regular season series is relatively even. For example, in the 2022-2023 season, the teams split their two games, with each winning on home ice. The franchises have taken different competitive paths in recent years. Ottawa has been in a rebuild phase, accumulating high draft picks like Brady Tkachuk (2018) and Tim Stützle (2020). Calgary, after winning the Pacific Division in 2021-2022, experienced a major roster turnover last offseason, trading key players like Matthew Tkachuk, Brady's brother.
Beyond a single regular season game, the outcome matters for the playoff hopes and financial health of both franchises. For the Senators, a win supports the narrative that their rebuild is progressing and helps attract fans to the Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa. For the Flames, a victory is important for maintaining position in a competitive Western Conference playoff race and justifying their offseason decisions to their fanbase. The game also has economic implications for local businesses in both cities on game night, from restaurants to merchandise sales. For the league, it is another data point in measuring Canadian team performance and national television viewership. Downstream consequences include potential impacts on player morale, trade deadline strategies for management, and seeding for the Stanley Cup playoffs. A loss could intensify scrutiny on either team's coaching staff or push management closer to being sellers at the March 8 trade deadline.
As of late February 2024, both teams are outside a playoff position in their respective conferences, making this a game between teams fighting to stay in the race. The Senators recently made a coaching change, replacing D.J. Smith with Jacques Martin on an interim basis, which could affect team strategy and morale. The Flames have been involved in trade speculation surrounding several veteran players as the March 8 deadline approaches, which can be a distraction. Both teams are dealing with standard NHL injuries, with specific player availability for March 5 to be confirmed closer to game time based on practice reports.
The game is scheduled to start at 9:00 PM Eastern Time (ET). For local time in Ottawa, that is 9:00 PM, and in Calgary, it is 7:00 PM Mountain Time.
The game will be broadcast on regional sports networks in both markets: TSN in Ottawa and Sportsnet in Calgary. National broadcast availability in the US or Canada depends on the NHL schedule.
Sportsbooks typically list the Flames as a slight favorite, especially if the game is in Calgary, due to their stronger defensive metrics and home-ice advantage. However, odds fluctuate based on starting goalies and injuries.
Historically, the Calgary Flames lead the all-time regular season series. Based on historical data, the Flames have won approximately 30 of the roughly 59 meetings, with the Senators winning around 24.
Yes, Brady Tkachuk will play for Ottawa. His brother, Matthew Tkachuk, was traded from Calgary to Florida in 2022, so this is no longer a direct sibling matchup, but Brady still faces his brother's former club.
According to the prediction market rules, if the game is postponed, the market will remain open until the game is completed. The resolution will then be based on the final score of the rescheduled match.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
6 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 53% |
| Poly | 52% |
| Poly | 52% |
| Poly | 51% |
| Poly | 51% |
| Poly | 50% |
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