This prediction market addresses the possibility of a kinetic strike against the Kharg Island oil terminal in the Persian Gulf before January 31, 2026. Kharg Island, located off Iran's southwestern coast, is the nation's primary crude oil export terminal, handling the vast majority of its seaborne oil shipments. The terminal's infrastructure, including its extensive jetties and storage facilities, represents a critical economic lifeline for Iran and a significant node in global energy markets. A successful strike on this facility would constitute a major escalation in regional tensions, potentially disrupting oil flows and triggering broader geopolitical consequences. The market resolves based on credible reporting of an actual impact, excluding intercepted missiles or drones that fail to hit the terminal. Interest in this topic stems from heightened regional instability, including ongoing shadow conflicts between Iran and its adversaries, such as Israel and the United States, and the persistent threat to critical energy infrastructure in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. Monitoring this risk is crucial for energy traders, geopolitical analysts, and policymakers assessing the stability of Middle Eastern oil exports.

Historical Context

Kharg Island's vulnerability to attack is not a new concern. The terminal was a primary target during the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War, suffering significant damage from repeated Iraqi airstrikes in what became known as the Tanker War. These attacks, which aimed to cripple Iran's oil export revenue, led to a dramatic reduction in the terminal's operational capacity and underscored the strategic value of targeting such infrastructure in conflict. In more recent years, the region has seen a shift toward asymmetric and proxy warfare, with attacks often attributed to state actors but conducted through intermediaries or with deniable weapons like drones. A pivotal precedent was the September 2019 attack on Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq oil processing facility and the Khurais oil field, claimed by the Houthis but widely attributed to Iran. That attack, which used a combination of drones and cruise missiles, temporarily halved Saudi oil production and demonstrated the severe impact a precision strike on energy infrastructure could have on global markets. These events established a modern template for targeting critical oil assets with relatively low-cost, high-impact weapons, directly informing current assessments of risks to Kharg Island.

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