Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

DC Circuit rules for AP on Oval Office access before 2028?

Total Volume

$2.00K

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DC Circuit rules for AP on Oval Office access before 2028?

Vol

$2.00K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $2.00K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.00K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit rule affirms the April 8, 2025 preliminary injunction as it applies to the Oval Office, Air Force One or Mar-a-Lago?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit rule affirms the April 8, 2025 preliminary injunction as it applies to the Oval Office, Air Force One or Mar-a-Lago?	Kalshi	10%

AI Analysis

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10%

Top Probability

$2.00K

Volume

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About This Event

Before 2028 If the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit affirms the April 8, 2025 preliminary injunction as it applies to the Oval Office, Air Force One or Mar-a-Lago in Associated Press v. Budowich, No. 25-5109 before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. The ruling must: Be issued by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit in Associated Press v. Budowich, No. 25-5109 Address the matter described by the specified judgment Be issued through a

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** DC Circuit rules for AP on Oval Office access before 2028?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2028

If the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit affirms the April 8, 2025 preliminary injunction as it applies to the Oval Office, Air Force One or Mar-a-Lago in Associated Press v. Budowich, No. 25-5109 before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. The ruling must:
Be issued by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit in Associated Press v. Budowich, No. 25-5109
Address the matter described by the specified judgment
Be issued through a

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit affirms the April 8, 2025 preliminary injunction as it applies to the Oval Office, Air Force One or Mar-a-Lago in Associated Press v. Budowich, No. 25-5109 before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The ruli"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit rule affirms the April 8, 2025 preliminary injunction as it applies to the Oval Office, Air Force One or Mar-a-Lago?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics