$10.67K
1
7
$10.67K
1
7
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Jan '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa
Prediction markets currently assign a 61% probability that the highest temperature recorded at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport on January 15 will fall within the 48-49°F range. This indicates the market views this outcome as the clear favorite, suggesting a more-likely-than-not scenario. However, with only moderate confidence and thin trading volume of $28,000, the consensus is not exceptionally strong. Alternative temperature bands, such as 46-47°F or 50-51°F, hold significantly lower probabilities, reflecting a market concentrated on a narrow forecast.
The pricing is primarily driven by climatological norms and recent short-term forecast trends. Seattle's average high temperature in mid-January historically ranges from 46°F to 48°F, making the 48-49°F forecast a plausible slight elevation above the mean. Market participants are likely synthesizing this baseline with available weather model data, which may have consistently shown a weak high-pressure system or a brief influx of milder maritime air capable of nudging temperatures a degree or two above average. The concentration of liquidity in one specific 2-degree band suggests forecast agreement on a lack of extreme conditions, either cold Arctic outbreaks or significant atmospheric river warming.
Given the imminent resolution, the odds are now largely fixed, but they would have been sensitive to last-minute forecast updates in the preceding 24-48 hours. A sudden shift in projected cloud cover, wind direction, or precipitation timing could have altered surface temperatures by a critical degree or two. For instance, clearer skies overnight before the 15th could have led to a colder start and a lower daytime high, shifting probability toward the 46-47°F bracket. Conversely, a stronger-than-expected southerly flow could have boosted odds for the 50-51°F range. With resolution due, the market will now settle based on the finalized official observation from Wunderground.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on forecasting the maximum temperature that will be recorded at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport on January 15, 2026. The market resolves based on official weather data from Wunderground's historical records for the specific weather station at the airport, which serves as the primary climatological reporting site for the Seattle metropolitan area. Participants are essentially betting on which temperature range will contain the day's peak reading, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. This type of market exemplifies the growing use of prediction platforms to aggregate crowd-sourced forecasts on specific, measurable outcomes in climate and weather. The interest stems from both meteorological curiosity and the practical implications of winter weather in the Pacific Northwest. Seattle's January climate is characterized by cool, wet conditions, but significant variability can occur due to atmospheric river events, cold Arctic air intrusions, or persistent inversion layers that trap cold air in the Puget Sound basin. Accurate temperature predictions for specific dates are valuable for urban planning, energy demand forecasting, and agricultural planning in the region. Recent years have shown increased volatility in Pacific Northwest winter temperatures, linked to broader climate patterns, making such forecasts both more challenging and more consequential.
Seattle's winter climate has historically been moderated by the Pacific Ocean, leading to relatively mild temperatures compared to other northern U.S. cities. The official recording site moved to Seattle-Tacoma International Airport in 1945, providing a consistent, long-term record. Analysis of this record shows that January 15 has experienced a wide range of high temperatures. The all-time record high for the date is 61°F, set in 1981, while the record low maximum (the coldest high temperature for the date) is 24°F, recorded in 1950. The period from 1970 to 2000 established a climatological normal for January highs in the mid-40s Fahrenheit. However, the 21st century has shown a marked increase in variability and a warming trend. For instance, January 2015 was notably warm, while January 2024 brought a significant cold snap with temperatures well below freezing for multiple days. This historical context is vital because it defines the plausible bounds for the prediction. The frequency of both extreme warm and cold January days appears to be increasing, a pattern climate scientists attribute to a warming Arctic and changing jet stream patterns, making historical precedent both a guide and a potential pitfall for forecasters.
The specific high temperature on a January day in Seattle has tangible economic and social ramifications. For the energy sector, each degree of deviation from the seasonal norm translates into millions of dollars in altered demand for electricity and natural gas, impacting grid stability and consumer bills. Transportation is also affected. A forecast near or below freezing necessitates road de-icing operations and can disrupt air travel at Sea-Tac Airport, a major regional hub. For agriculture in the surrounding valleys, such as the Skagit Valley, an unexpected hard freeze can damage overwintering crops. Beyond immediate impacts, data points like daily high temperatures are the building blocks of climate science. Consistently recording warmer-than-average January days contributes to the long-term dataset used to track regional climate change in the Pacific Northwest. This information guides policy on infrastructure resilience, water resource management, and environmental protection. Therefore, accurately predicting and understanding these temperatures is a matter of practical preparedness and scientific significance.
As of late 2024, seasonal climate outlooks from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center are being formulated for the winter of 2025-2026. The state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will be a primary driver of these outlooks. A persistent El Niño phase typically correlates with warmer and drier conditions in the Pacific Northwest, potentially increasing the probability of a higher temperature on January 15, 2026. Conversely, a neutral or La Niña phase would suggest higher odds of cooler, wetter conditions. Long-range forecast models, which become more reliable as the date approaches, are not yet providing specific guidance for a single day in January 2026. Market activity will likely intensify in the weeks leading up to the date as short-term weather model ensembles from the GFS (Global Forecast System) and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) begin to show consensus or disagreement on the synoptic pattern expected for mid-January.
Seattle in mid-January typically experiences cool, damp weather with average high temperatures in the mid-40s Fahrenheit and average lows in the upper 30s. Precipitation is frequent, often in the form of rain, with a slight chance of snow or ice during colder outbreaks. Cloudy skies are common due to the maritime influence.
Seattle-Tacoma International Airport has served as the official climatological station for Seattle since 1945. It provides a consistent, long-term record in a location less affected by urban heat island effects compared to downtown. The FAA-operated Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) there ensures standardized, high-quality measurements that meet National Weather Service requirements.
Forecast accuracy decreases significantly with time. While seasonal outlooks can suggest general temperature trends (warmer or cooler than average) for a month, a specific daily high temperature forecast is highly unreliable beyond 7-10 days. As the target date approaches within a 5-day window, forecast models become much more reliable as they resolve specific storm systems and air masses.
Unusually warm January days are typically caused by a strong, moist southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching Pacific storm system, known as an atmospheric river. This pumps mild, maritime air from the subtropical Pacific into the region. A strong ridge of high pressure off the coast can also lead to warmer, drier conditions through subsidence and downslope warming.
Exceptionally cold days occur when the jet stream dips southward, allowing a mass of dense, dry Arctic air to funnel south through the Fraser River Valley in British Columbia and into the Puget Sound basin. This is often accompanied by clear skies and calm winds, leading to strong radiational cooling at night and cold daytime highs.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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