Name: What will the Bank of Russia do at the February key rate meeting?
End: 2026-02-13T00:00:00.000Z

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Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the February Meeting?

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Cross-Platform Comparison(1)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the February Meeting?ARB	46%	36%	10%

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**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What will the Bank of Russia do at the February key rate meeting?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Feb 13, 2026 meeting

If the Bank of Russia takes the action of Hike X Y Z at February Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emerge

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s February meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its February 13, 2026 meeting as liste"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $39.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.58M
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.02)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (3 mkts) vs Kalshi (7 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the February Meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 13, 2026): Vol $9.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 45.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 20, 2026): Vol $3.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 10.0% spread between platforms.

### 2. Will the Bank of Russia Hike more than 50bp at the February Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 20, 2026): Vol $67
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Bank of Russia Hike 50 basis points at the February Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 20, 2026): Vol $28
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Bank of Russia Hike 25 basis points at the February Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 20, 2026): Vol $322
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Bank of Russia Cut more than 50bp at the February Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 20, 2026): Vol $89
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Bank of Russia Cut 50 basis points at the February Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 20, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 47.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the Bank of Russia Cut 25 basis points at the February Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 20, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the February Meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 13, 2026): Vol $6.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the February Meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 13, 2026): Vol $16.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

28d 13h remaining

Feb 13, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

46¢

Polymarket

36¢

Kalshi

10¢ price gap

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What will the Bank of Russia do at the February key rate meeting?

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What will the Bank of Russia do at the February key rate meeting?

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Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the February Meeting?

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What will the Bank of Russia do at the February key rate meeting?

Bank of Russia decision in February?

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Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the February Meeting?

Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the February Meeting?

Will the Bank of Russia Cut 50 basis points at the February Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting?

Will the Bank of Russia Cut 50 basis points at the February Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting?

Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the February Meeting?

Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the February Meeting?

Will the Bank of Russia Maintain current rate at the February Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting?

Will the Bank of Russia Hike 25 basis points at the February Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting?

Will the Bank of Russia Hike 25 basis points at the February Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting?

Will the Bank of Russia Hike 50 basis points at the February Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting?

Will the Bank of Russia Hike 50 basis points at the February Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting?

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Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the February Meeting?

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What will the Bank of Russia do at the February key rate meeting?

Bank of Russia decision in February?

Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the February Meeting?

Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the February Meeting?

Will the Bank of Russia Cut 50 basis points at the February Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting?

Will the Bank of Russia Cut 50 basis points at the February Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting?

Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the February Meeting?

Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the February Meeting?

Will the Bank of Russia Maintain current rate at the February Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting?

Will the Bank of Russia Hike 25 basis points at the February Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting?

Will the Bank of Russia Hike 25 basis points at the February Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting?

Will the Bank of Russia Hike 50 basis points at the February Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting?

Will the Bank of Russia Hike 50 basis points at the February Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting?

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