Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEntertainment

National Book Award for Nonfiction

Total Volume

$17.06K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

National Book Award for Nonfiction

Vol

$17.06K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $17.06K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $17.06K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will Spawning Season: An Experiment in Queer Parenthood win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Spawning Season: An Experiment in Queer Parenthood win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	49%
Will Mother Tongue win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	45%
Will Dangerous, Dirty, Violent, and Young: A Fugitive Family in the Revolutionary Underground win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	32%
Will A Dead White: An Argument Against White Paint win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	21%
Will Let the Poets Govern: A Declaration of Freedom win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	3%
Will The Midnight Special: The Secret Prison History of American Music win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	2%
Will Huna: A Memoir of Revolution, Prison, and Becoming win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	2%
Will The War Within a War: The Black Struggle in Vietnam and at Home win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	1%
Will Tie win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	1%
Will Seasons of Fury: Four Families and the Rise of Islamophobia in America win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	1%
Will The Evolution of Fire: Essays on Crisis and Becoming win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

49%

Top Probability

$17.06K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

2026 | Nonfiction If X Y wins the award for Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 77th National Book Awards is scheduled to take place Wednesday, November 18, 2026 at 8:00 PM EST This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** National Book Award for Nonfiction
**Category:** Entertainment | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2026 | Nonfiction

If X Y wins the award for Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 77th National Book Awards is scheduled to take place Wednesday, November 18, 2026 at 8:00 PM EST This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If 'The War Within a War: The Black Struggle in Vietnam and at Home' wins the award for Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 77th National Book Awards is scheduled to take place Wednesday, November 18, 2026 at 8:00 PM EST Early close cond"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $17.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will The War Within a War: The Black Struggle in Vietnam and at Home win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Tie win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Spawning Season: An Experiment in Queer Parenthood win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 49.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Seasons of Fury: Four Families and the Rise of Islamophobia in America win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Mother Tongue win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 45.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will The Midnight Special: The Secret Prison History of American Music win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Let the Poets Govern: A Declaration of Freedom win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Huna: A Memoir of Revolution, Prison, and Becoming win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will The Evolution of Fire: Essays on Crisis and Becoming win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will A Dead White: An Argument Against White Paint win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Dangerous, Dirty, Violent, and Young: A Fugitive Family in the Revolutionary Underground win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 18, 2027): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 31.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEntertainment

National Book Award for Nonfiction

Volume$17.06K

Markets11

11 of 11

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KALSHI

Will Spawning Season: An Experiment in Queer Parenthood win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 49.0¢No 51.0¢

KALSHISports

Will Spawning Season: An Experiment in Queer Parenthood win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

If 'Spawning Season: An Experiment in Queer Parenthood' wins the award for Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 77th National Book Awards is scheduled to take place Wednesday, November 18, 2026 at 8:00 PM EST Early close condition: This m

KALSHI

Will Mother Tongue win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 45.0¢No 55.0¢

KALSHISports

Will Mother Tongue win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

If 'Mother Tongue' wins the award for Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 77th National Book Awards is scheduled to take place Wednesday, November 18, 2026 at 8:00 PM EST Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if

KALSHI

Will Dangerous, Dirty, Violent, and Young: A Fugitive Family in the Revolutionary Underground win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 31.5¢No 68.5¢

KALSHISports

Will Dangerous, Dirty, Violent, and Young: A Fugitive Family in the Revolutionary Underground win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

If 'Dangerous, Dirty, Violent, and Young: A Fugitive Family in the Revolutionary Underground' wins the award for Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 77th National Book Awards is scheduled to take place Wednesday, November 18, 2026 at 8:0

KALSHI

Will A Dead White: An Argument Against White Paint win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 20.5¢No 79.5¢

KALSHISports

Will A Dead White: An Argument Against White Paint win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

If 'A Dead White: An Argument Against White Paint' wins the award for Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 77th National Book Awards is scheduled to take place Wednesday, November 18, 2026 at 8:00 PM EST Early close condition: This market

KALSHI

Will Let the Poets Govern: A Declaration of Freedom win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.0¢No 97.0¢

KALSHISports

Will Let the Poets Govern: A Declaration of Freedom win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

If 'Let the Poets Govern: A Declaration of Freedom' wins the award for Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 77th National Book Awards is scheduled to take place Wednesday, November 18, 2026 at 8:00 PM EST Early close condition: This marke

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/UPSumC" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="National Book Award for Nonfiction"></iframe>

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Will Spawning Season: An Experiment in Queer Parenthood win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

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Events (1)

National Book Award for Nonfiction

Markets (11)

Will Spawning Season: An Experiment in Queer Parenthood win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Spawning Season: An Experiment in Queer Parenthood win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Mother Tongue win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Mother Tongue win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Dangerous, Dirty, Violent, and Young: A Fugitive Family in the Revolutionary Underground win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Dangerous, Dirty, Violent, and Young: A Fugitive Family in the Revolutionary Underground win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will A Dead White: An Argument Against White Paint win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will A Dead White: An Argument Against White Paint win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Let the Poets Govern: A Declaration of Freedom win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Let the Poets Govern: A Declaration of Freedom win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

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Will Spawning Season: An Experiment in Queer Parenthood win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

National Book Award for Nonfiction

Will Spawning Season: An Experiment in Queer Parenthood win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Spawning Season: An Experiment in Queer Parenthood win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Mother Tongue win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Mother Tongue win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Dangerous, Dirty, Violent, and Young: A Fugitive Family in the Revolutionary Underground win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Dangerous, Dirty, Violent, and Young: A Fugitive Family in the Revolutionary Underground win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will A Dead White: An Argument Against White Paint win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will A Dead White: An Argument Against White Paint win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Let the Poets Govern: A Declaration of Freedom win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

Will Let the Poets Govern: A Declaration of Freedom win Nonfiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

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