Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETMentions

What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18)

Name: What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18)
End: 2026-10-19T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$676.92

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18)

Vol

$676.92

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $676.92

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $676.92

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Will Trump post "Iran" on Truth Social this week?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Trump post "Iran" on Truth Social this week?	Poly	95%
Will Trump post "China" on Truth Social this week?	Poly	83%
Will Trump post "Nidal Hasan" on Truth Social this week?	Poly	49%
Will Trump post "Rigged" on Truth Social this week?	Poly	41%
Will Trump post "Putin" on Truth Social this week?	Poly	37%
Will Trump post "Mexico" on Truth Social this week?	Poly	30%
Will Trump post "Fool" on Truth Social this week?	Poly	28%
Will Trump post "Sanction" on Truth Social this week?	Poly	27%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

95%

Top Probability

$676.92

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between October 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts/truths count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts/truths and reposts/reTruths will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18)
**Category:** Mentions | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 19, 2026 (7 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between October 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts/truths count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts/truths and reposts/reTruths will not count.

Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between October 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts/tr"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $314
* **Total Liquidity:** $691
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.45)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Trump post "China" on Truth Social this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $55
  DATA: [Yes: 83.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 17.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Trump post "Putin" on Truth Social this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $37
  DATA: [Yes: 37.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Trump post "Rigged" on Truth Social this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $127
  DATA: [Yes: 41.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Trump post "Sanction" on Truth Social this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Trump post "Fool" on Truth Social this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Trump post "Mexico" on Truth Social this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $10
  DATA: [Yes: 30.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Trump post "Iran" on Truth Social this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 94.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Trump post "Nidal Hasan" on Truth Social this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 19, 2026): Vol $85
  DATA: [Yes: 49.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETMentions