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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This event is for the CBB game between Washington State Cougars and San Diego Toreros on January 20 at 12:00 AM ET. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
Prediction markets are pricing in a decisive victory for the San Francisco Dons. The contract "Washington State Cougars vs. San Francisco Dons" is trading at just 20% on Polymarket. This translates to an implied 80% probability that the San Francisco Dons will win the game. A 20% chance suggests the market views a Washington State victory as a significant underdog outcome, possible but not the expected result.
Two primary factors are driving this lopsided market pricing. First, team performance and rankings heavily favor San Francisco. The Dons have consistently been a strong mid-major program in recent seasons, often competing for the West Coast Conference title behind Gonzaga. Washington State, while a Power Five program in the Pac-12, has struggled with consistency and enters this non-conference matchup as the perceived weaker team based on early-season resumes and key metrics like NET rankings.
Second, the location of the game is a major consideration. This game is being played at the Chase Center in San Francisco, effectively a home game for the Dons. Home-court advantage in college basketball is a well-documented and powerful edge, contributing significantly to the market's confidence in a San Francisco win. The combination of superior team strength and a favorable venue creates a clear consensus.
The primary catalyst that could shift these odds is a major injury report or lineup announcement affecting a key San Francisco player before tip-off. If a star Dons guard or forward were ruled out, the market would likely see rapid movement. Conversely, Washington State could see its odds improve if betting patterns indicate sharp money flowing in on the Cougars, signaling that professional bettors have identified a mismatch the public markets have missed. However, with the game resolving in just two days, the window for such a shift is narrow, and the current 80% probability for San Francisco reflects a stable consensus.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
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This prediction market topic concerns the outcome of a college basketball game scheduled for January 20 between the Washington State Cougars and the San Diego Toreros. The game is part of the 2023-2024 NCAA Division I men's basketball season. The market specifically resolves based on the final result of this non-conference matchup, with special provisions for postponement or cancellation. Washington State, representing the Pac-12 Conference, is typically considered the stronger program, while San Diego, from the West Coast Conference, enters as the underdog. The game's timing in January places it during the critical non-conference and early conference play period for both teams, where outcomes significantly impact postseason tournament resumes, including potential bids to the NCAA Tournament or the National Invitation Tournament (NIT). Interest in this market stems from basketball enthusiasts, sports bettors, and fans of both programs tracking team performance, player development, and the strategic implications of a late-season non-conference game. The specific resolution rules regarding postponements and cancellations add a layer of complexity for market participants, requiring attention to athletic department scheduling and potential weather or other unforeseen disruptions.
The Washington State Cougars men's basketball program has a history dating back to 1902, with its most successful period occurring under coaches like George Raveling and Tony Bennett. The team has made six NCAA Tournament appearances, most recently in 2008 under Bennett, reaching the Sweet Sixteen. Historically a member of the Pac-12 Conference, Washington State has often struggled for consistent dominance in a league featuring traditional powerhouses like UCLA and Arizona. The program is known for developing tough, defensive-minded teams, a legacy continued under current coach Kyle Smith. The San Diego Toreros program, established in 1955, has experienced moments of national prominence, most notably a victory in the 2008 West Coast Conference Tournament that secured an NCAA Tournament bid and a first-round upset of Connecticut. The Toreros compete in the WCC, a conference historically dominated by Gonzaga. San Diego's basketball history is marked by occasional upsets and competitive play, but not sustained high-level success. The two programs have limited historical interaction, making this January matchup a relatively rare intersection. Their last meeting was during the 2019-2020 season, a game Washington State won 72-71 in a closely contested battle, highlighting the potential for competitive games despite conference disparities.
Beyond the immediate game result, this matchup holds significance for the postseason aspirations of both programs. For Washington State, a victory is expected and necessary to bolster its NCAA Tournament resume, particularly in a season where the Pac-12's overall strength is under scrutiny. A loss would be considered a damaging Quadrant 3 or 4 defeat that could severely hinder its at-large bid chances come March. For San Diego, a win against a Pac-12 opponent represents a major opportunity to enhance its profile within the WCC and for potential NIT consideration. It serves as a measuring stick for the progress of Steve Lavin's rebuilding efforts. Economically, the game impacts university athletic departments through ticket sales, concessions, and potential media revenue, even for a non-conference game in January. For fans and alumni, the outcome fuels bragging rights and morale, influencing donor engagement and student interest in the basketball program during the heart of the academic year. The game's result also feeds into the broader analytics used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee, affecting not just these two teams but the perceived strength of their respective conferences.
As of the information provided, the game is scheduled for January 20 at 12:00 AM Eastern Time. Both teams are presumed to be in the midst of their 2023-2024 regular season schedules. Washington State will be navigating its final season in the Pac-12 Conference before realignment, while San Diego continues its campaign in the West Coast Conference. The latest developments would involve each team's performance in games leading up to this date, including any injuries, roster changes, or shifts in momentum that could affect the matchup. The prediction market is open with the specific resolution rules stated, awaiting the game's completion.
The television or streaming broadcast information for this specific January 20 game will be determined by the networks and announced closer to the date. It is likely to be carried on a Pac-12 Network affiliate or a streaming service like ESPN+.
The game location is not specified in the market details. Typically, such non-conference games in January could be played at Washington State's home court, Beasley Coliseum in Pullman, or potentially at a neutral site. The venue would be confirmed by the athletic departments.
According to the market rules, if the game is postponed, the prediction market will remain open until the game has been completed. The market will not resolve until the official result of the rescheduled game is final.
The market rules state that if the game is canceled entirely with no make-up game scheduled, the market will resolve as a 50-50 split. This means all predictions are treated as a tie.
Based on historical program strength, conference affiliation, and pre-season analytics, the Washington State Cougars are heavily favored to defeat the San Diego Toreros. This is reflected in estimated point spreads favoring Washington State by double digits.
Traditional sports betting on this game will be available through licensed sportsbooks in legal jurisdictions once game lines are posted. This prediction market offers an alternative, speculative platform for forecasting the game's outcome, distinct from regulated sports betting.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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