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$7.77K
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Before Nov 7, 2028 If X is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. X declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form, Form 2 with FEC for federal elections or equivalent state/local form, AND a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring intention to seek the office. The declaration must be made directly by t
Prediction markets currently assign a low probability of approximately 20% to California Governor Gavin Newsom being the first Democrat from the specified list to announce a 2028 presidential run. This price indicates the market views an early Newsom declaration as unlikely, though not impossible. The leading alternative is a collective 80% chance that another potential candidate, such as Vice President Kamala Harris or another prominent figure, will declare first. With only $8,000 in total volume across ten related markets, liquidity is thin, suggesting these odds are preliminary and highly sensitive to new information.
Two primary factors are suppressing Newsom's odds. First, the established political sequence favors the incumbent party's sitting vice president. Historical precedent suggests Kamala Harris would have first-mover advantage should President Biden not seek re-election, creating a significant institutional hurdle for Newsom. Second, Newsom's own strategic positioning points toward 2032. His recent high-profile international trips and focused advocacy within California are seen as building a long-term national profile rather than immediate 2028 campaign logistics, a view reinforced by his repeated public denials of 2028 plans against the backdrop of supporting the Biden-Harris ticket.
The most significant catalyst would be a change in Vice President Harris's political standing. Should she decide not to run or encounter a sharp, sustained decline in viability within Democratic primary polling, markets would rapidly reprice Newsom's chances upward. Conversely, a formal, early endorsement from President Biden designating Harris as his preferred successor would likely drive Newsom's probability toward single digits. The market will remain volatile until the 2024 election concludes and the post-election Democratic Party narrative begins to solidify, with the first major shift likely occurring in early 2025 as potential candidates begin private testing.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on identifying which potential Democratic candidate will be the first to formally announce a presidential campaign for the 2028 election, with the resolution period extending from the market's issuance until November 7, 2028. The market requires a dual verification for a valid announcement: the candidate must file Form 2 with the Federal Election Commission (or an equivalent state or local form) and make a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring their intention to seek the presidency. This creates a specific, measurable event for market participants to wager on. The 2028 presidential election cycle is notable as it will be the first open race without an incumbent president from either party since 2016, generating intense speculation about the future of the Democratic Party. Interest in this market stems from political analysts, party strategists, and observers who view the timing and order of announcements as significant indicators of candidate confidence, organizational strength, and early fundraising potential. The outcome may signal which potential candidate has secured key endorsements, built a substantial war chest, or believes they can define the early narrative of the primary season.
The timing of presidential campaign announcements has become increasingly strategic in the modern political era. Historically, the unofficial start of the campaign season was after the midterm elections, but this timeline has steadily crept forward. In the 2020 Democratic primary, Senator Elizabeth Warren announced her exploratory committee on December 31, 2018, one of the earliest major moves. For the 2024 cycle, several Republican candidates, including Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy, announced their campaigns in February 2023, nearly two years before the election. This acceleration is driven by the intense demands of fundraising, the need to build name recognition in a fragmented media landscape, and the competitive advantage of securing early endorsements and staff. The first candidate to announce often receives a surge of media attention, which can translate into early polling leads and donor interest, though it also subjects them to greater scrutiny. The precedent set by candidates like Barack Obama, who announced his 2008 campaign in February 2007, and Donald Trump, who announced his 2016 campaign in June 2015, shows that early announcements can be successful but do not guarantee the nomination. The specific FEC filing requirement (Form 2) referenced in this market provides a clear, legal bright line for what constitutes a formal declaration, moving beyond mere speculation or the formation of an exploratory committee.
The identity of the first major Democratic announcer carries significant political ramifications for the shape of the entire 2028 election cycle. It sets the initial media narrative, forcing other potential candidates to react and potentially accelerating their own decision-making timelines. An early announcement by a candidate from the party's progressive wing versus its moderate wing would send a powerful signal about the perceived direction and energy of the Democratic electorate, influencing policy platforms across the field. For political professionals, donors, and activists, this early move helps allocate resources, as early momentum can be self-reinforcing through media coverage and fundraising. The outcome of this prediction market serves as a collective intelligence gauge on which potential candidate has the most confidence in their preparatory groundwork, including donor commitments, staffing, and internal polling. Beyond the horserace, the timing reflects broader trends in American politics, such as the lengthening of campaign seasons and the professionalization of presidential campaigns, which have profound impacts on governance and political discourse.
As of late 2024, the political landscape is focused on the imminent 2024 presidential election. Public discussion of the 2028 Democratic field is largely speculative, with potential candidates carefully avoiding any overt steps that could be construed as campaigning while President Biden is the incumbent. Behind the scenes, however, common pre-campaign activities are likely underway, including book tours, speeches in key primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire, fundraising for allied PACs, and strengthening relationships with party officials and donors. No potential candidate has taken the formal step of filing with the FEC for a 2028 run, as doing so would be a major breach of political protocol during an ongoing election cycle. The market is currently in a pre-active phase, with participants assessing long-term political trends and the personal career trajectories of key players.
Form 2, the Statement of Candidacy, is the official document an individual files with the Federal Election Commission to register as a candidate for federal office. It legally triggers campaign finance reporting requirements and is the definitive governmental record of a presidential candidacy.
For the 2024 cycle, Republican candidates began announcing in early 2023, with Nikki Haley declaring on February 14, 2023, and Vivek Ramaswamy on February 21, 2023. President Biden formally announced his re-election campaign on April 25, 2023.
An exploratory committee allows potential candidates to raise and spend money to 'test the waters' without formally declaring. A formal announcement requires filing FEC Form 2, which legally establishes the candidacy and imposes full campaign finance regulations.
Based on current political standing and media speculation, frequently mentioned potential candidates include Governors Gretchen Whitmer (MI), Josh Shapiro (PA), Gavin Newsom (CA), J.B. Pritzker (IL), as well as Cabinet Secretary Pete Buttigieg and prominent members of Congress.
The first major candidate to announce typically receives a significant wave of media attention, which can help with early name recognition, fundraising, and the recruitment of skilled campaign staff. It can also force other contenders to define themselves in relation to the first announcer's platform.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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10 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will Gavin Newsom be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? | Kalshi | 20% |
Will Pete Buttigieg be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? | Kalshi | 12% |
Will J.B. Pritzker be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? | Kalshi | 10% |
Will Josh Shapiro be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? | Kalshi | 10% |
Will Gretchen Whitmer be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? | Kalshi | 10% |
Will Andy Beshear be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? | Kalshi | 8% |
Will Jon Ossoff be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? | Kalshi | 4% |
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? | Kalshi | 3% |
Will Wes Moore be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? | Kalshi | 3% |
Will Kamala Harris be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? | Kalshi | 2% |
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