Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Next Fed rate hike?

Total Volume

$95.84K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Next Fed rate hike?

Vol

$95.84K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $95.84K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $95.84K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by June 30, 2028?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by June 30, 2028?	Kalshi	96%
Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2028?	Kalshi	96%
Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2027?	Kalshi	94%
Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by June 30, 2027?	Kalshi	92%
Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026?	Kalshi	79%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

96%

Top Probability

$95.84K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Fed rate hike If the Federal Reserve announces an increase in the target range or target level for the federal funds rate after market Issuance and on or before X Y 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next Fed rate hike?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Fed rate hike

If the Federal Reserve announces an increase in the target range or target level for the federal funds rate after market Issuance and on or before X Y 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Federal Reserve announces an increase in the target range or target level for the federal funds rate after market Issuance and on or before Jun 30, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $95.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by June 30, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 1, 2028): Vol $586
  DATA: [Yes: 96.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2029): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 95.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by June 30, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $22.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 91.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 93.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $68.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 78.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 21.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Next Fed rate hike?

Volume$95.84K

Markets5

5 of 5

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KALSHI

Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by June 30, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.0¢No 4.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by June 30, 2028?

If the Federal Reserve announces an increase in the target range or target level for the federal funds rate after market Issuance and on or before Jun 30, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

KALSHI

Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 95.5¢No 4.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2028?

If the Federal Reserve announces an increase in the target range or target level for the federal funds rate after market Issuance and on or before Dec 31, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

KALSHI

Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 93.5¢No 6.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2027?

If the Federal Reserve announces an increase in the target range or target level for the federal funds rate after market Issuance and on or before Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

KALSHI

Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by June 30, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 91.5¢No 8.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by June 30, 2027?

If the Federal Reserve announces an increase in the target range or target level for the federal funds rate after market Issuance and on or before Jun 30, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

KALSHI

Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 78.5¢No 21.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026?

If the Federal Reserve announces an increase in the target range or target level for the federal funds rate after market Issuance and on or before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

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91¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/UVfGJv" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Next Fed rate hike?"></iframe>

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Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by June 30, 2028?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Next Fed rate hike?

Markets (5)

Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by June 30, 2028?

Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by June 30, 2028?

Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2028?

Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2028?

Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2027?

Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2027?

Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by June 30, 2027?

Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by June 30, 2027?

Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026?

Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by June 30, 2028?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Next Fed rate hike?

Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by June 30, 2028?

Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by June 30, 2028?

Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2028?

Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2028?

Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2027?

Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2027?

Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by June 30, 2027?

Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by June 30, 2027?

Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026?

Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026?

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Discussion

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