Snapshot observed 2026-10-27T15:00:05.980Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The two providers list related but not identical contracts on the 2026-27 DFB-Pokal champion. Kalshi's event says that "If X is the 2026-27 DFB Pokal Champion, then the market resolves to Yes," and that the market "will close and expire after a title holder is declared" [1]. Its event-level listed end time is "not supplied" [1].

Polymarket's rules say the market "will resolve according to the club that wins the 2026-27 DFB-Pokal." A club resolves to "No" if it becomes impossible for that club to win under the competition's rules. The market resolves to "Other" if the competition is cancelled, postponed after June 12, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or no winner is declared in that period [2]. Polymarket names the Deutscher Fußball-Bund as the primary resolution source, with "a consensus of credible reporting" possibly used as well [2]. Its listed end time is 2027-05-29T23:59:00.000Z [2].

The saved market rows also show different listed end dates: 2027-06-12T18:00:00.000Z for the Kalshi markets and 2027-05-29T23:59:00.000Z for the Polymarket markets. These are listed closing times in the saved data, not announced event dates, and the evidence does not explain the difference.

Reading the snapshot

The prices were observed at 2026-10-27T15:00:05.980Z and retrieved at 2026-10-27T17:50:36.289Z. They describe that snapshot only, not current conditions. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.

In the Kalshi sample, the Yes price for Bayern Munich is 0.485 and for Dortmund is 0.105 [1]. In the Polymarket sample, the Yes price for Bayern Munich is 0.409 and for Borussia Dortmund is 0.145 [2]. These are separate contracts with different wording and listed close times. The two Bayern figures should be read side by side, not averaged, and their gap should not be treated as an arbitrage opportunity.

Each provider event is a partial sample. The Kalshi event has 21 total markets and 12 included, and the Polymarket event has 36 total and 12 included. The included markets are not the full field, and the evidence does not show prices for the omitted outcomes. Rankings should not be compared across the two events.

What remains uncertain

Several points are not settled by this evidence. The Kalshi event's end time is not supplied, and the listed close times differ between providers. Polymarket's cancellation and postponement conditions are stated, but the evidence does not show whether any of them apply. The evidence also does not explain why prices sit where they do, how many traders hold these views, or how liquid either market is, since no volume or depth data appears in this snapshot.

References

1. Kalshi: DFB Pokal Champion. Provider data observed 2026-10-27T15:00:05.980Z.
2. Polymarket: DFB-Pokal: 2026-27 Champion. Provider data observed 2026-10-27T15:00:05.980Z.