Snapshot observed 2026-11-09T15:00:07.937Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The Kalshi event asks whether a listed college basketball team will be ranked in the top 10 of the Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings (KenPom) at 12:00pm EST on March 15, 2027. The rules state that "If X is ranked top 10 on the 2027 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings on Mar 15, 2027 at 12:00pm EST, then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. The excerpt also says that "Resolution is determined solely by the KenPom ratings on Mar 15, 2027 at 12:00pm EST" [1]. Each team has its own Yes or No contract, so the wording applies to one team at a time.

Two dates appear in the evidence and should not be confused. The rules refer to the March 15, 2027 ratings check. The market data lists an end date of March 14, 2028 at 16:00 UTC [1]. The source excerpt says "Listed end time: not supplied," so the evidence does not explain how that field relates to resolution. The rules also say the market "will close and expire early if the event occurs" [1]. No announced event date beyond these rule terms is supplied.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observation time is 15:00 UTC on November 9, 2026, and the source was retrieved at 17:30 UTC the same day [1]. These prices describe that earlier moment, not live conditions.

The sample contains 12 of 75 markets from this single Kalshi event [1]. Those 12 were selected by highest Yes price, then volume, so the omitted 63 markets cannot be assumed to have lower prices. Every included market shows Yes at 0.495 and No at 0.505 [1]. Within this sample, the prices are identical, so the snapshot does not separate these teams.

These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Trading volume and sample counts do not indicate liquidity or how many people hold a view. Because all markets come from one provider event, no cross-platform comparison is supported here.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not explain why prices sit at these levels, whether they have changed, or what information traders are using. It also does not show the current KenPom ranking of any team, because the excerpt covers only the contract rules and a snapshot. Prices for the 63 omitted markets are unknown. Different contracts with different rules or dates should not be treated as an arbitrage opportunity based on price differences alone.

References

1. Kalshi: KenPom Ratings on Mar 15: Top 10 Teams. Provider data observed 2026-11-09T15:00:07.937Z.