Events
GroupPOLYMARKET
Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports
Mercyhurst Lakers vs. Stonehill Skyhawks
Total Volume
$101.50K
Events
1
Markets
1
Mercyhurst Lakers vs. Stonehill Skyhawks
Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison
Polymarket
1
markets · $101.50K
Kalshi
0
markets · $0.00
Price Spread
0.0%avg
max 0.0%
Arbitrage
0
of 0 cross-platform
Volume DistributionTotal: $101.50K
100%
Polymarket leads
Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph
1 market tracked
Mercyhurst Lakers vs. Stonehill Skyhawks
No data available
Single-Platform Markets(1)
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 50% |
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
50%
Top Probability
$101.50K
Volume
1
Markets
1
Platforms
About This Event
This event is for the CBB game between Mercyhurst Lakers and Stonehill Skyhawks on February 28 at 2:00 PM ET. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting
Prediction markets currently see the upcoming college basketball game between the Mercyhurst Lakers and the Stonehill Skyhawks as a pure toss-up. The collective intelligence of thousands of traders suggests each team has roughly a 50% chance to win. This is the market's way of saying it has no clear favorite. The significant amount of money wagered, over $100,000, indicates traders are engaged but fundamentally split on the outcome.
Why the Market Sees It This Way
The even odds reflect the competitive realities of both teams this season. They are conference rivals in the Northeast Conference, and their records are very similar. As of late February, both teams are fighting in the middle of the conference standings, often winning and losing against the same opponents. Their first matchup this season was a close game, which likely reinforces the perception of an even rematch.
There isn't a dominant star or a major injury report swinging the odds heavily toward one side. In college basketball, especially in mid-major conferences like the NEC, games between evenly matched teams often come down to home-court advantage or a single hot shooter. The market seems to be pricing in all these typical, unpredictable factors that decide a single game.
Key Dates and Events to Watch
The main event is the game itself on Wednesday, February 28, at 2:00 PM ET. Odds may shift slightly if last-minute news breaks, such as a key player being ruled out during warm-ups. The only other event that would change the market is an official postponement of the game, which would keep the market open until it is played. A full cancellation would result in a 50-50 settlement.
How Reliable Are These Predictions?
For regular-season college basketball games, prediction markets are generally quite accurate. They efficiently aggregate public information, team statistics, and betting trends. However, their accuracy has limits in cases like this one. When the market is split 50-50, it isn't making a strong forecast. It is honestly reflecting high uncertainty. The final result could reasonably go either way, and a market at even odds is often correct in signaling that unpredictability. The main value here is the clear message that no one should be confident in picking a winner.
Current Market Outlook
Prediction markets are pricing in a dead-even contest. On Polymarket, the binary contract for a Mercyhurst Lakers victory is trading at exactly 50 cents, implying a 50% probability. This price indicates the market views the game as a pure coin flip, with no discernible favorite. The market has attracted moderate liquidity, with over $100,000 in total volume, suggesting meaningful trader engagement despite the even odds.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
The 50/50 pricing directly reflects the teams' closely matched records and recent performances. Entering this matchup, both Mercyhurst and Stonehill hold near-identical conference records in the Northeast Conference. Mercyhurst sits at 8-6, while Stonehill is 7-7. Their first meeting this season on January 26 was decided by a single point, a 67-66 victory for Stonehill. This historical precedent of an extremely tight game validates the market's current assessment. Furthermore, neither team has shown consistent dominance in recent weeks, each posting a similar pattern of wins and losses against common opponents. The statistical profile, from scoring margins to defensive efficiency, shows minimal separation, justifying the consensus that this is a true toss-up.
What Could Change These Odds
The primary factor that could shift the probability from 50% is last-minute information regarding player availability, particularly injuries or illnesses not fully accounted for in the public betting lines. A key starter being ruled out for either side would likely cause immediate price movement. Beyond personnel, the market may be undervaluing home court advantage. Stonehill is hosting this game, and while the first matchup was close, playing at home could provide a slight edge not fully priced in at 50%. If pre-game betting money shows a sharp move toward one side, prediction market traders may follow, breaking the equilibrium before tip-off.
Cross-Platform Analysis
This market is trading exclusively on Polymarket. The absence of a comparable market on Kalshi eliminates a direct cross-platform arbitrage opportunity. The concentrated liquidity on a single platform means the 50% price is the sole consensus view of the prediction market ecosystem for this event.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.