Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?

Name: Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$44.04K

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Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?

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Polymarket

markets · $44.04K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $44.04K

100%

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1 market tracked

Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?	Poly	6%

AI Analysis

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Top Probability

$44.04K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between December 5, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, howeve

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, April 17, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (74 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between December 5, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, howeve

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between December 5, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end d"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $44.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $15.9K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.78)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $44.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

73d 23h remaining

Jun 30, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

6¢

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Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?

Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?

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Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Events (1)