This prediction market topic concerns the political stability of Giorgia Meloni's government in Italy, specifically whether she will cease to be Prime Minister before June 30, 2026. The market resolves to 'Yes' if Meloni resigns, is removed, or announces her resignation/removal for any period between December 5, 2025, and the deadline. The resolution source is the Italian government. Meloni, leader of the Brothers of Italy party, became Italy's first female prime minister in October 2022, heading a right-wing coalition government. Her tenure has been marked by a staunch conservative agenda on social issues, a hardline stance on immigration, and generally pro-European Union economic policies, though with nationalist undertones. Interest in this market stems from Italy's history of political volatility, with over 70 governments since World War II, and the current challenges facing Meloni's administration, including managing public debt, economic growth, and coalition dynamics. Observers are watching for potential triggers that could destabilize her government, such as internal coalition disputes, policy failures, or external economic shocks.

Historical Context

Italy's political landscape is famously unstable, providing crucial context for this prediction. Since the establishment of the Italian Republic in 1946, the country has had over 70 governments, with an average tenure of just over a year. This volatility stems from a proportional representation electoral system that typically produces coalition governments, which are prone to internal disagreements. The most recent precedent for a prime minister leaving office was Mario Draghi, who resigned in July 2022 after a key coalition partner withdrew support, triggering the election that brought Meloni to power. Prior to Draghi, Giuseppe Conte's first government fell in August 2019 after just 14 months when the League left his coalition. Meloni's own government, formed in October 2022, has already surpassed the average lifespan, but historical patterns suggest coalition fatigue and policy disputes often precipitate crises. The last government to complete a full five-year term was Silvio Berlusconi's from 2001 to 2006, an exception that proves the rule of Italy's turbulent politics.

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