
$1.66K
1
1

1 market tracked

No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
![]() | Poly | 3% |
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between December 5, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, howeve
Prediction markets currently assign a very low probability to Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni leaving office before the deadline. On Polymarket, the "Yes" share trades at just 3¢, implying a 3% chance that Meloni ceases to be Prime Minister between December 5, 2025, and June 30, 2026. This price indicates the market views her departure within this timeframe as a highly unlikely event, with overwhelming confidence in the stability of her government.
Two primary factors support this pricing. First, Meloni's coalition government maintains a strong, stable majority in both chambers of the Italian Parliament. Her Brothers of Italy party leads a right-wing alliance that secured a decisive victory in the 2022 election, and no immediate parliamentary threat to her leadership exists. Second, Meloni herself has demonstrated firm control over her coalition partners, the League and Forza Italia, avoiding the internal fractures that have toppled previous Italian governments. Her consistent polling, where she remains Italy's most popular party leader, further solidifies her political position.
The 3% probability primarily accounts for low-probability, high-impact risk scenarios. A significant, unforeseen coalition collapse over a major policy dispute could trigger a crisis. Similarly, an external shock, such as a severe economic downturn or a geopolitical crisis straining government unity, might increase instability. The market will closely monitor European Union dynamics, as clashes with EU institutions over budget rules or policy could theoretically pressure the domestic political landscape. However, with no scheduled national elections before 2027, the path for a forced early exit remains narrow, which is why the odds are priced so low.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
$1.66K
1
1
This prediction market topic concerns the political stability of Giorgia Meloni's government in Italy, specifically whether she will cease to be Prime Minister before June 30, 2026. The market resolves to 'Yes' if Meloni resigns, is removed, or announces her resignation/removal for any period between December 5, 2025, and the deadline. The resolution source is the Italian government. Meloni, leader of the Brothers of Italy party, became Italy's first female prime minister in October 2022, heading a right-wing coalition government. Her tenure has been marked by a staunch conservative agenda on social issues, a hardline stance on immigration, and generally pro-European Union economic policies, though with nationalist undertones. Interest in this market stems from Italy's history of political volatility, with over 70 governments since World War II, and the current challenges facing Meloni's administration, including managing public debt, economic growth, and coalition dynamics. Observers are watching for potential triggers that could destabilize her government, such as internal coalition disputes, policy failures, or external economic shocks.
Italy's political landscape is famously unstable, providing crucial context for this prediction. Since the establishment of the Italian Republic in 1946, the country has had over 70 governments, with an average tenure of just over a year. This volatility stems from a proportional representation electoral system that typically produces coalition governments, which are prone to internal disagreements. The most recent precedent for a prime minister leaving office was Mario Draghi, who resigned in July 2022 after a key coalition partner withdrew support, triggering the election that brought Meloni to power. Prior to Draghi, Giuseppe Conte's first government fell in August 2019 after just 14 months when the League left his coalition. Meloni's own government, formed in October 2022, has already surpassed the average lifespan, but historical patterns suggest coalition fatigue and policy disputes often precipitate crises. The last government to complete a full five-year term was Silvio Berlusconi's from 2001 to 2006, an exception that proves the rule of Italy's turbulent politics.
The stability of the Italian government has significant implications for Europe and global markets. Italy is the Eurozone's third-largest economy and carries one of the world's highest public debt burdens, at over 140% of GDP. A political crisis could disrupt fiscal management, spook bond markets, and increase borrowing costs for the Italian state, with contagion risks for the wider European financial system. Politically, Meloni's departure could alter the balance of power within the European Union. Her government has generally been a cooperative, though assertive, partner on EU matters. A shift to a different coalition or an early election could bring a more Eurosceptic or unstable administration, impacting EU policy on migration, fiscal rules, and support for Ukraine. Domestically, a change in leadership would mean a potential shift in key policies on immigration, social issues, and economic reform, affecting millions of Italian citizens and businesses.
As of late 2024, Giorgia Meloni remains in office as Prime Minister, having passed the two-year mark of her government in October 2024. Her coalition of Brothers of Italy, the League, and Forza Italia maintains its parliamentary majority. The government has recently navigated the passage of its annual budget law, a key test of coalition unity. However, underlying tensions persist, particularly with Matteo Salvini's League over policy priorities and influence. The European Parliament elections in June 2024 served as a mid-term test, with Meloni's Brothers of Italy performing strongly, solidifying her position as the dominant force on the Italian right. The political focus is now shifting towards the final phase of the parliamentary term, with observers closely monitoring coalition discipline and the management of Italy's economic challenges.
Meloni could resign voluntarily, be forced out by losing a vote of confidence in parliament, or see her coalition collapse if a key partner like the League or Forza Italia withdraws support. A major political scandal, a severe policy failure, or sustained poor performance in opinion polls could also create pressure leading to resignation.
The coalition between Brothers of Italy, the League, and Forza Italia is currently stable, holding a solid parliamentary majority. However, it faces inherent strains due to policy differences and competition for influence among the party leaders. Its stability is considered conditional and must be actively managed, as history shows Italian coalitions often fracture before the end of a full term.
If Meloni resigns, President Sergio Mattarella would begin consultations to see if a new majority can be formed in parliament, potentially from the existing coalition or a new configuration. A replacement prime minister could be another figure from Brothers of Italy, a leader from a coalition partner, or a technocrat. If no viable government can be formed, the President would dissolve parliament and call early elections.
The next regular general election is due by spring 2027, at the end of the current five-year parliamentary term. However, if the Meloni government falls and no alternative majority can be found, President Mattarella could call a snap election at any time before that date.
No, Giorgia Meloni is the first female prime minister in the history of the Italian Republic. She assumed the office on October 22, 2022, following the victory of her right-wing coalition in the September 2022 general election.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
Share your predictions and analysis with other traders. Coming soon!

No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/UlNrj3" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?"></iframe>