$980.05K
1
13
$980.05K
1
13
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market refers to the LoL match between Deep Cross Gaming and Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming in the LCP Playoffs, scheduled for February 28 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Deep Cross Gaming" if Deep Cross Gaming win the match against Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming. This market will resolve to "Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming" if Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming win the match against Deep Cross Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7
Prediction markets are forecasting that Deep Cross Gaming will win the third game of their playoff series against Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming. Markets assign this a near-certain probability of 100%. In practical terms, traders collectively believe there is essentially no chance for any other outcome in this specific game. This reflects an extreme level of confidence in a single match within a larger series.
This specific 100% probability likely stems from the structure of the match and available information. The market is for the winner of "Game 3" in a best-of-five series. In League of Legends, games are played sequentially. For a Game 3 market to be active, the series must be at least 1-1. The 100% price suggests that Game 3 has already concluded by the time most traders are evaluating this market, making the result a known fact rather than a future prediction. The high volume of nearly $1 million across related questions shows significant interest in the overall playoff outcome between these two Japanese League of Legends (LJL) teams. The LJL is Japan's top professional league, and these playoffs determine which team advances to the Mid-Season Invitational, a major international tournament.
The key event has already passed. The match was scheduled for February 28 at 1:00 AM ET. For the overall series outcome, which is the more meaningful competitive event, the remaining games after Game 3 are what matter. If the series continues, watch for the results of Game 4 and, if necessary, Game 5. The winner of the entire best-of-five series will advance in the LCP playoffs.
For a market like this, which appears to be resolving on a known result, the reliability is effectively perfect. More broadly, prediction markets on discrete, short-term sporting events like individual esports games tend to be highly accurate when active trading occurs close to the event. The main limitation here is that this particular "forecast" isn't really predicting the future. It is acting as a mechanism to settle a known outcome. For the overall series winner, markets would provide a genuine probabilistic forecast, and those have a strong track record in similar contexts.
Prediction markets on Polymarket show near-certainty regarding the outcome of this League of Legends LCP Playoffs match. The market for "Game 3 Winner" is priced at 100%, indicating traders believe the series has already concluded. This price reflects a resolved event, not a future probability. The high trading volume of $980,000 across related markets confirms significant attention was paid to this match before its scheduled start time of February 28.
The 100% price is a definitive signal that the match result is known to the market. In esports prediction markets, this typically occurs when a match finishes earlier than the official data feed updates or when off-chain information confirms the outcome before the market resolves. The LCP is Japan's top League of Legends circuit, and its playoffs are a critical step toward qualification for the Pacific Championship Series. Deep Cross Gaming and Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming are professional organizations, but historical performance data and recent form would have been the primary drivers of pre-match odds. The sheer volume suggests sharp bettors and fans actively traded based on real-time information.
Nothing can change these odds. A market pinned at 100% is waiting for official resolution. The only remaining variable is the timing of the market settlement by Polymarket's oracle. Disputes are highly unlikely unless there is an extraordinary scenario, such as an official league ruling overturning the match result, which is rare in esports. For researchers, this market now serves as a closed case study on how liquidity and information efficiency converge in niche esports events.
This event is trading exclusively on Polymarket. The lack of a comparable market on platforms like Kalshi is common for regional esports matches, which often find deeper liquidity on crypto-based prediction markets favored by the gaming community. The concentrated volume on Polymarket alone provided the necessary liquidity for efficient price discovery before the match concluded.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market concerns a best-of-five League of Legends match in the LJL (League of Legends Japan League) Championship Playoffs. The match features Deep Cross Gaming against Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming, with the winner advancing further in the postseason bracket. The LJL is Japan's premier professional League of Legends competition, operating under the Riot Games ecosystem. This specific playoff series is scheduled for February 28, 2025, at 1:00 AM Eastern Time. The outcome will determine which team moves closer to winning the LJL Spring Split championship and securing a potential spot at the Mid-Season Invitational, an international Riot Games tournament. Both teams have distinct organizational backgrounds. Deep Cross Gaming is an established esports organization with a history in the LJL, while Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming is backed by the SoftBank Hawks, a major professional baseball franchise in Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball. This corporate backing makes the Hawks a unique entity in the league, blending traditional sports infrastructure with esports. Interest in this market stems from the high stakes of the LJL playoffs and the contrasting team identities. Bettors and fans analyze recent team form, head-to-head records, and player matchups to predict the outcome. The best-of-five format tests team depth, strategic adaptation, and mental resilience, making it a more reliable indicator of team strength than a single game.
The LJL was founded in 2014 as Japan's official Riot Games-sanctioned league. For much of its history, the league was dominated by DetonatioN FocusMe (DFM), who won eight consecutive splits from 2016 to 2022. This dynasty established a clear hierarchy. The competitive landscape began to shift in 2023 when Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming entered the league. Backed by the financial resources and brand of the SoftBank Hawks baseball team, the organization signaled a new era of corporate investment in Japanese League of Legends. They quickly became a top contender. Deep Cross Gaming has been a league participant since 2021, originally known as Crest Gaming Act before a rebrand. They have typically been a mid-table team, often finishing in playoff positions but failing to challenge for the title. The 2025 Spring Split regular season saw a more competitive environment, with the Hawks and Deep Cross finishing with close records. Their previous meetings in the 2025 regular season provide the most immediate historical context for this playoff match, with each team likely securing wins against the other, setting up a contested playoff series.
This match matters for the competitive future of the LJL. A Deep Cross victory would demonstrate that strategic coaching and veteran experience can overcome the resource advantages of a corporately-backed team like the Hawks. It would reinforce a more traditional esports organizational model. A Hawks win would validate the investment model of traditional sports franchises entering esports, potentially encouraging more NPB teams or other corporations to field LJL teams. This could increase league revenue and competitiveness. For the players, the outcome has direct career implications. Winning the LJL championship is the primary path to representing Japan at the Mid-Season Invitational (MSI), a major international tournament. Performance at MSI can elevate a player's global profile and lead to opportunities in stronger regions like Korea's LCK or China's LPL. The result also affects fan engagement and viewership for the LJL, which influences sponsorship deals and the long-term health of the professional scene in Japan.
The LJL 2025 Spring Split regular season has concluded, and the playoff bracket is set. Deep Cross Gaming and Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming have qualified and are now matched against each other in the playoffs. The exact seeding and their regular season head-to-head record are the most recent competitive data points. Both teams are presumably in a preparation period, analyzing opponent strategies, practicing specific compositions, and scrimmaging. The match is confirmed for February 28, 2025, at 1:00 AM ET. All attention is now focused on this single elimination series, with the winner advancing to the next round of the LJL Championship Playoffs.
The LJL, or League of Legends Japan League, is the top-level professional League of Legends competition in Japan. It is a Riot Games-sanctioned league where teams compete across Spring and Summer splits to become national champion and qualify for international tournaments like the Mid-Season Invitational and World Championship.
Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming is often considered the favorite due to their strong roster featuring imported Korean talent like Steal and high-performing Japanese players like Zerost. However, Deep Cross Gaming's acquisition of veteran star Evi and their strategic coaching make them a serious contender, especially in a best-of-five series format.
The match is scheduled to begin on February 28, 2025, at 1:00 AM Eastern Time (ET). For viewers in Japan, this corresponds to an afternoon start time on February 28, typically around 3:00 PM Japan Standard Time (JST).
The LJL playoffs are broadcast live on the official LJL YouTube channel and may also be streamed on Twitch. English commentary is usually provided for international viewers. VODs of the matches are posted on the LJL YouTube channel after the broadcast concludes.
The winner of the LJL Spring Split playoffs is crowned the Japanese champion and earns the right to represent the LJL region at the Mid-Season Invitational (MSI), a major international tournament featuring champions from leagues worldwide. They also win a significant portion of the league's prize pool.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
13 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
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| Poly | 100% |
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| Poly | 65% |
| Poly | 60% |
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| Poly | 39% |
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