TX-25 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $15.3K
1
8
TX-25 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $15.3K
1
8
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Republican 15-20% at 37%.
Polymarket
- Republican 15-20%37%
- Republican 20-25%31%
- Republican 10-15%29%
- Democrat Wins7.4%
- Republican 5-10%5.1%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $15.3K
Reported volume · provider units
8
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 TX-25 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TX-25 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event is the TX-25 House election margin of victory. The source says the 2026 election "is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. Margin is "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Only Democratic and Republican nominees count as options, and independent candidates do not represent either party [1].
Two rules affect how a bracket can resolve. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher bracket [1]. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The primary resolution source is the official certified results, though "an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1].
Contracts in this sample differ in wording. The Democratic contract asks whether that party's candidate wins, while the others ask whether the Republican candidate wins by a specified margin. The listed end time for all of them is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1].
Reading the snapshot
The prices were observed at 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z and retrieved at 2026-10-15T23:22:36.179Z. They describe a past moment, not a live quote. All eight saved Polymarket markets for this event are included, so this sample does not omit any market from the saved event [1].
Among the Republican margin contracts, the Yes prices are 0.32 for 20% to 25%, 0.305 for 15% to 20%, 0.29 for 10% to 15%, 0.0585 for 5% to 10%, 0.054 for 0% to 5%, 0.036 for 25% to 30%, and 0.0245 for 30% or more. The Democratic win contract shows a Yes price of 0.0535 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not verified probabilities or executable quotes.
The Democratic contract asks a different question from the margin brackets, so its price should not be combined with them or read as a counterpart to a single bracket. The source provides no volume figures, so this summary makes no claim about liquidity or the number of traders.
What remains uncertain
The source does not report vote counts, polling, or any explanation for the price levels. Because the snapshot was observed more than two hours before retrieval, current prices may differ. The sample covers only this saved provider event, and the source notes that inclusion "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The rules also state that if a named candidate is replaced before election day, the market resolves on the replacement nominee [1].
References
- Polymarket: TX-25 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
PredictPedia's TX-25 contract concerns the margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House election for Texas's 25th congressional district. The election is expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1][2]. The contract does not ask which party wins. It asks how large the gap is between the top two finishers, measured in percentage points of valid votes [1]. The Texas House elections are part of a wider cycle. Texas has thirty-eight congressional districts, each electing one representative, and the 2026 contests coincide with Senate races and state and local elections [2]. Primaries were held on March 3, 2026, and runoffs on May 26 in races where no candidate passed 50 percent [2]. The provider lists the event as active, with a listed end time of 4:59 UTC on November 4, 2026 [1]. That listed time is a trading close set by the provider. It is not a result announcement, and the contract's resolution depends on official certified counts rather than the listed end time [1].
Historical Context
Background on U.S. House elections is available in general terms. The 2018 House elections were held on November 6, 2018, to choose representatives from all 435 congressional districts, during the first term of President Donald Trump [3]. That article covers the national cycle and does not describe the TX-25 race, its candidates, or its past results.
Why It Matters
The contract measures competitiveness within one district. Its margin is the absolute difference between the vote shares of the first-place and second-place candidates, with each share calculated from total valid votes [1]. A narrow margin means a close race, while a wide margin means one candidate led by a large share of the vote. The contract uses the nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties as the two labeled options. Independent candidates are not treated as either party's option [1]. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves on the replacement nominee [1]. The resolution rules include several edge cases. If a result falls exactly on a boundary between two brackets, the contract resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. Ties for first place are settled by ballot-listed last name, with the lowest margin bracket applied in the listed case, and an 'Other' outcome applies if the tie is among unlisted candidates [1]. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the contract resolves to 'Other' [1]. A recount started before certification keeps the market open until it finishes [1]. The primary resolution source is the official result published by the state electoral authority that certifies the election. Credible reporting in overwhelming consensus may also be used [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the TX-25 margin of victory contract actually pay on?
It pays on the gap between the top two candidates' shares of valid votes. The margin is the absolute difference between those two percentages, calculated against all valid votes cast [1].
Does an independent candidate count as an option?
No. Candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican parties represent the two party options, and independent candidates do not represent either party [1].
What happens if the result is not known by the deadline?
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the contract resolves to 'Other' [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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