Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

ICE Agent charged in NYC incident by December 31?

Name: ICE Agent charged in NYC incident by December 31?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.18K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

ICE Agent charged in NYC incident by December 31?

Vol

$1.18K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.18K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.18K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

ICE Agent charged in NYC incident by December 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
ICE Agent charged in NYC incident by December 31?	Poly	23%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

23%

Top Probability

$1.18K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any Immigration and Customs Enforcement employee for their involvement in the shooting of Oscar Belgal in the Marble Hill neighborhood of Manhattan, New York City on October 8, 2026, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, munici

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** ICE Agent charged in NYC incident by December 31?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2027 (82 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any Immigration and Customs Enforcement employee for their involvement in the shooting of Oscar Belgal in the Marble Hill neighborhood of Manhattan, New York City on October 8, 2026, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, munici

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any Immigration and Customs Enforcement employee, or other federal immigration enforcement officer, for their involvement in the shooting of Os"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $775
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.53)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. ICE Agent charged in NYC incident by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics