$1.93M
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55
$1.93M
4
55
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Before Jan 1, 2027 If X has been formally charged with a federal crime after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Charges filed in military courts are included. The reinstatement of charges filed prior to Issuance does not count; only the filing of a new charging document after Issuance triggers the Payout Criterion. <p>Formal charges require the filing of a criminal complaint, information, or indictment with an appropriate court. Arrests without charges, being name
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market asks whether a specific individual, referred to as 'X,' will be charged with a federal crime before January 1, 2027. The market resolves to 'Yes' if X is arrested or voluntarily surrenders to law enforcement pursuant to an indictment before that date. The topic exists within a political context where high-profile federal investigations are common, and speculation about potential indictments of public figures generates significant public and market interest. The specific identity of 'X' is not disclosed in the market description, which is typical for prediction markets focused on sensitive legal outcomes. This creates a scenario where participants must analyze publicly available information about ongoing investigations, political dynamics, and legal precedents to forecast a binary legal event. Interest stems from the potential for major political disruption, media coverage of high-stakes legal proceedings, and the financial implications for markets sensitive to political stability. The early closure feature adds urgency, as confirmation of the event would immediately settle all contracts.
The modern precedent for indicting high-profile political figures was established in 1974 with the indictment of 40 White House officials and advisors in the Watergate scandal, leading to President Richard Nixon's resignation. The independent counsel law, enacted in 1978, created a framework for investigating senior officials, though it lapsed in 1999. Since then, Attorneys General have appointed special counsels under existing regulations. In recent years, Special Counsel Robert Mueller's investigation (2017-2019) into Russian election interference resulted in indictments of 34 individuals, though it did not charge a sitting president. This set a contemporary benchmark for complex political investigations. The indictment of a former president, Donald Trump, by a Manhattan district attorney in March 2023 marked an unprecedented moment in American history, breaking a long-standing political norm. This was followed by federal indictments from Special Counsel Jack Smith in June and August 2023, and a state indictment in Georgia in August 2023, establishing a new era where criminal charges against former presidents and major candidates are a tangible possibility. These events directly inform the context of a market predicting a federal charge against an individual by 2027.
A federal indictment of a major political figure would have profound consequences for the U.S. political system. It would test the durability of democratic norms regarding the rule of law and the idea that no person is above it. Such an event would likely dominate the national discourse, potentially overshadowing legislative agendas and influencing the 2024 and 2026 election cycles. Voter perceptions of judicial fairness and political weaponization would be sharply polarized. For financial markets, prolonged legal uncertainty surrounding a key political actor could increase volatility. Industries sensitive to regulatory policy or political stability, such as energy, healthcare, and defense, might reassess investment timelines. The event would also place immense strain on the Department of Justice, requiring it to manage a prosecution while defending its legitimacy against accusations of partisan bias. Internationally, allies and adversaries would scrutinize the event for signs of domestic instability, potentially affecting diplomatic relations and perceptions of U.S. leadership.
As of late 2024, the legal landscape remains active with several high-profile federal investigations. Special Counsel Jack Smith's cases against Donald Trump are proceeding through pre-trial motions, with trial dates pending. The investigation into Hunter Biden by Special Counsel David Weiss is ongoing, with a trial on gun charges scheduled for June 2024. The Department of Justice continues to prosecute individuals involved in the January 6 attack. Attorney General Merrick Garland has consistently stated the department follows the facts and the law without regard to political considerations. The political climate remains highly polarized regarding the Justice Department's actions, with frequent accusations of partisan motivation from various quarters.
In the federal system, 'charged' and 'indicted' are often used interchangeably, but an indictment is a specific type of charge. A federal indictment is a formal accusation issued by a grand jury, which is a group of citizens who review evidence presented by a prosecutor. An individual can also be charged via a 'criminal information,' filed directly by a prosecutor, typically for misdemeanors or with the defendant's consent to waive a grand jury.
The Department of Justice has maintained a policy, stated in a 1973 and reaffirmed in a 2000 memo, that a sitting president cannot be indicted. The rationale is that criminal proceedings would unconstitutionally undermine the executive branch's ability to function. This is an internal DOJ policy, not a Supreme Court ruling, and its application to a former president is clear—they can be indicted, as demonstrated by recent cases.
A federal grand jury consists of 16 to 23 citizens who serve for up to 18 months. Prosecutors present evidence and call witnesses to determine if there is probable cause to believe a crime was committed. The proceedings are secret, and only the prosecutor presents evidence; the defense is not present. If at least 12 jurors agree, they issue an indictment, which is then unsealed by a judge.
Common federal crimes include drug trafficking, immigration offenses, firearms violations, fraud (including wire, mail, and bank fraud), and white-collar crimes like insider trading. Crimes related to national security, terrorism, and crimes that cross state lines also fall under federal jurisdiction. The specific crime in any prediction would depend on the investigation's focus.
After an indictment is unsealed, the defendant is arrested or summonsed to appear in court for an arraignment. At arraignment, they are formally read the charges and enter a plea. The court then sets a schedule for pre-trial motions, evidence discovery, and eventually a trial date. Most federal cases are resolved through plea agreements before reaching trial.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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Before Jan 2027 If X is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Clarification, 9/25/25: The contract states that if an individual "surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney" the payout criterion is satisfied. To be clear, voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement pursuant to an indictment without an arrest warrant is sufficient to resolve a market to Yes. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a
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