GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform4 EventsPolitics

Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?

Name: Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$2.83M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?

Vol

$2.83M

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $32.60K

Kalshi

markets · $2.79M

Price Spread

1.4%avg

max 2.2%

Arbitrage

of 1 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.83M

99%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

64 markets tracked

Obama arrested before 2027?

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(1)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Obama arrested before 2027?	4%	5%	1%

Single-Platform Markets(63)

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

38%

Top Probability

$2.83M

Volume

Markets

5.0%

Price Gap

About This Event

Before Jan 1, 2027 If X has been formally charged with a federal crime after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Charges filed in military courts are included. The reinstatement of charges filed prior to Issuance does not count; only the filing of a new charging document after Issuance triggers the Payout Criterion. Formal charges require the filing of a criminal complaint, information, or indictment with an appropriate court. Arrests without charges, being named a

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 6, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will be arrested in 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 2027

If X is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Clarification, 9/25/25: The contract states that if an individual "surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney" the payout criterion is satisfied. To be clear, voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement pursuant to an indictment without an arrest warrant is sufficient to resolve a market to Yes. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Barack Obama is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Clarification (9/25/25): The contract states that if an individual "surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney" the payout criterion is satisfied. To be clear, voluntarily surrende"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.83M
* **Total Liquidity:** $38.2K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 74.07)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (2 mkts) vs Kalshi (65 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Barack Obama be arrested before Jan 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $251.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $21.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.2% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $10.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $102.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 2.7% spread between platforms.

### 2. Will Lee Jae Myung be arrested before Jan 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Candace Owens be arrested before Jan 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Kash Patel be arrested before Jan 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $6.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Pam Bondi be arrested before Jan 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $12.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before Jan 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $13.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before Jan 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $8.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Brandon Johnson be arrested before Jan 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Joe Biden be arrested before Jan 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $10.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.6% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Tom Homan be arrested before Jan 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $10.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Letitia James be arrested before Jan 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $157.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Mahmoud Khalil be arrested before Jan 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $10.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Lisa Cook be arrested before Jan 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $29.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Adam Schiff be arrested before Jan 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $51.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.8% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before Jan 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $44.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.7% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Lee Jun-seok be arrested before Jan 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $3.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Bill Clinton be arrested before Jan 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $41.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.7% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before Jan 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $170.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Susan Rice be arrested before Jan 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $12.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Loretta Lynch be arrested before Jan 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $8.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will John Kerry be arrested before Jan 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $7.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will James Clapper be arrested before Jan 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $63.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.2% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will John Brennan be arrested before Jan 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $142.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 25.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will Hillary Clinton be arrested before Jan 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $187.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.1% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will Dan J. Sullivan be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $4.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 26. Will Jennifer Siebel Newsom be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $7.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 27. Will Gavin Newsom be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $13.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 28. Will Cassidy Hutchinson be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $4.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 29. Will George Soros be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $4.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 30. Will Reid Hoffman be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $4.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 31. Will Andrew Weissmann be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $3.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 32. Will Lisa Monaco be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 33. Will Miles Taylor be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 34. Will E. Jean Carroll be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $14.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 35. Will Gustavo Petro be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $11.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 36. Will Joe Kent be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $5.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.8% (0.0%)]

### 37. Will Tucker Carlson be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $7.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.7% (0.0%)]

### 38. Will Jacob Frey be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $11.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.6% (0.0%)]

### 39. Will Elissa Slotkin be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $8.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 40. Will Ilhan Omar be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $131.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 41. Will John Brennan be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $49.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 42. Will Jerome Powell be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $23.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 43. Will Keith Ellison be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $18.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.7% (0.0%)]

### 44. Will Pam Bondi be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $21.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.7% (0.0%)]

### 45. Will Tim Walz be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $261.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.3% (0.0%)]

### 46. Will Peter Strzok be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $10.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 47. Will Mark Milley be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $7.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 48. Will Mark Kelly be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $17.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.4% (0.0%)]

### 49. Will Letitia James be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $63.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 50. Will Lisa Cook be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $25.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 51. Will Liz Cheney be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $10.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 52. Will Jack Smith be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $69.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 53. Will James Clapper be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $19.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 54. Will Joe Biden be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $23.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 55. Will Hillary Clinton be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $41.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 56. Will Hunter Biden be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $13.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.8% (0.0%)]

### 57. Will Fani Willis be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $10.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 58. Will Christopher Wray be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $7.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.3% (0.0%)]

### 59. Will Chris Krebs be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $5.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 60. Will Chris Christie be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $5.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.4% (0.0%)]

### 61. Will Bill Clinton be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $54.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.9% (0.0%)]

### 62. Will Adam Schiff be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $30.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 63. Will Anthony Fauci be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $394.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 37.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.5% (0.0%)]

### 64. Will Alvin Bragg be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $19.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

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Rules

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Similar

KALSHIPolitics

Who will be arrested in 2026?

Before Jan 2027 If X is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Clarification, 9/25/25: The contract states that if an individual "surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney" the payout criterion is satisfied. To be clear, voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement pursuant to an indictment without an arrest warrant is sufficient to resolve a market to Yes. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Volume$1.25M

Markets24

POLYMARKETPolitics

Obama arrested before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a

Volume$21.91K

Markets1

64 of 64

Sort:

KALSHI

Will Anthony Fauci be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 37.5¢No 62.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Anthony Fauci be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?

If Anthony Fauci has been formally charged with a federal crime after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Charges filed in military courts are included. The reinstatement of charges filed prior to Issuance does not count; only the filing of a new charg

KALSHI

Will John Brennan be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 33.5¢No 66.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will John Brennan be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?

If John Brennan has been formally charged with a federal crime after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Charges filed in military courts are included. The reinstatement of charges filed prior to Issuance does not count; only the filing of a new chargi

KALSHI

Will John Brennan be arrested before Jan 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 25.0¢No 75.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will John Brennan be arrested before Jan 2027?

If John Brennan is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Clarification (9/25/25): The contract states that if an individual "surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney" the payout criterion is satisfied. To be clear, voluntarily surrende

KALSHI

Will Mahmoud Khalil be arrested before Jan 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 17.0¢No 83.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will Mahmoud Khalil be arrested before Jan 2027?

If Mahmoud Khalil is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Clarification (9/25/25): The contract states that if an individual "surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney" the payout criterion is satisfied. To be clear, voluntarily surren

KALSHI

Will Ilhan Omar be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 16.5¢No 83.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Ilhan Omar be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?

If Ilhan Omar has been formally charged with a federal crime after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Charges filed in military courts are included. The reinstatement of charges filed prior to Issuance does not count; only the filing of a new charging

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Next Market Closes

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Jan 01, 2027 4:59 AM

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4¢

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5¢

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Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?