Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

US employer health insurance cost growth in Q3 2026

Total Volume

$2.00

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

US employer health insurance cost growth in Q3 2026

Vol

$2.00

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $2.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.00

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 4.5%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 4.5%?	Kalshi	97%
Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 5.0%?	Kalshi	96%
Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 5.5%?	Kalshi	91%
Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 6.0%?	Kalshi	55%
Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 6.5%?	Kalshi	14%
Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 7.0%?	Kalshi	4%
Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 7.5%?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

97%

Top Probability

$2.00

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Q3 2026 If the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. This market uses the 12-month percentage change in health-benefit costs for private-industry workers published in the BLS Employment Cost Index, not seasonally adjusted and in current dollars. Q3 2026 refers to the 12 months ending September 2026, not the change during the quarter. Resolution uses the first officially published value at BLS

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US employer health insurance cost growth in Q3 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Q3 2026

If the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. This market uses the 12-month percentage change in health-benefit costs for private-industry workers published in the BLS Employment Cost Index, not seasonally adjusted and in current dollars. Q3 2026 refers to the 12 months ending September 2026, not the change during the quarter. Resolution uses the first officially published value at BLS

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 is above 7.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market uses the 12-month percentage change in health-benefit costs for private-industry workers published in the BLS Employme"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 7.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 7.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 6.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 6.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 55.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 45.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 5.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 91.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 5.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 4.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 97.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

US employer health insurance cost growth in Q3 2026

Volume$2.00

Markets7

7 of 7

Sort:

KALSHI

Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 4.5%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.0¢No 3.0¢

KALSHIHealth

Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 4.5%?

If the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 is above 4.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market uses the 12-month percentage change in health-benefit costs for private-industry workers published in the BLS Employme

KALSHI

Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 5.0%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.0¢No 4.0¢

KALSHIHealth

Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 5.0%?

If the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 is above 5.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market uses the 12-month percentage change in health-benefit costs for private-industry workers published in the BLS Employme

KALSHI

Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 5.5%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 91.0¢No 9.0¢

KALSHIHealth

Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 5.5%?

If the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 is above 5.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market uses the 12-month percentage change in health-benefit costs for private-industry workers published in the BLS Employme

KALSHI

Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 6.0%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 55.0¢No 45.0¢

KALSHIHealth

Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 6.0%?

If the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 is above 6.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market uses the 12-month percentage change in health-benefit costs for private-industry workers published in the BLS Employme

KALSHI

Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 6.5%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 14.0¢No 86.0¢

KALSHIHealth

Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 6.5%?

If the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 is above 6.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market uses the 12-month percentage change in health-benefit costs for private-industry workers published in the BLS Employme

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

51¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/UuXbSK" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="US employer health insurance cost growth in Q3 2026"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi

US employer health insurance cost growth in Q3 2026

US employer health insurance cost growth in Q3 2026

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 4.5%?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

US employer health insurance cost growth in Q3 2026

Markets (7)

Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 4.5%?

Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 4.5%?

Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 5.0%?

Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 5.0%?

Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 5.5%?

Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 5.5%?

Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 6.0%?

Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 6.0%?

Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 6.5%?

Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 6.5%?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Market Insights

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 4.5%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

US employer health insurance cost growth in Q3 2026

Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 4.5%?

Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 4.5%?

Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 5.0%?

Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 5.0%?

Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 5.5%?

Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 5.5%?

Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 6.0%?

Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 6.0%?

Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 6.5%?

Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. private-industry employer health-benefit costs for September 2026 be above 6.5%?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

Embed Widget