How low will Trump's approval rating get before 2027?
PM $195.3K · K 327.7K contracts
2
13
How low will Trump's approval rating get before 2027?
PM $195.3K · K 327.7K contracts
2
13
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 8, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 36% at 51%, and on Kalshi it is Below 36% at 71.5%.
Polymarket
- 36%51%
- 35%25%
- 34%20%
- 20%5.3%
- 30%4.9%
Kalshi
- Below 36%71.5%
- Below 35.5%59.5%
- Below 35%35.5%
- Below 34.5%27%
- Below 34%16.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $195.3K · K 327.7K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
13
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 8, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
About This Event
Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 If Donald Trump's average approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is below X then the market resolves to Yes. In order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period. This market will close and expire early if polling data for the specified time period is released.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-07T09:00:06.323Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The two events ask related but different questions. The Kalshi event resolves Yes if Donald Trump's average approval rating from Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026, as reported by VoteHub, is below the threshold, and the threshold need only be met once in that period [1]. The Polymarket event resolves Yes if Silver Bulletin's approval rating for any date in 2026 is equal to or below the listed value, using the green trend line for that date [2]. One uses a period average from VoteHub and the other uses single-date values from Silver Bulletin, so matching thresholds do not mean matching questions.
Listed close times also differ. The Kalshi markets show an end date of 2027-01-07T12:00:00.000Z, while the Polymarket event lists 2027-01-04T17:00:00.000Z, and two Polymarket markets show 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [1][2]. Polymarket adds that if the December 31 rating is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET, the market resolves on earlier datapoints [2].
Reading the snapshot
The snapshot was observed at 2026-11-07T09:00:06.323Z and retrieved at 2026-11-07T11:07:17.478Z. These are prices at that time, not live quotes or verified probabilities. On Kalshi, Yes prices fall as thresholds drop: 0.77 for below 36%, 0.355 for below 35%, and 0.0825 for below 33% [1]. On Polymarket, Yes prices for the "hit" markets are 0.64 at 36%, 0.31 at 35%, 0.20 at 34%, and 0.03 at 25% [2]. The 20% Polymarket market (0.0505) sits slightly above the 30% market (0.049), so the series is not strictly ordered. The evidence does not explain this.
Both events include all saved markets: seven on Kalshi and six on Polymarket, with no partial sample [1][2]. These counts describe the saved provider events, not every possible outcome.
What remains uncertain
The sources do not explain why prices sit where they do, and they do not show how many traders hold each view. Volume is not supplied, so it cannot indicate liquidity. Prices should not be averaged across platforms, since the wording, averaging method, and close times differ. A gap between platforms does not establish an arbitrage opportunity. The Polymarket 36% market is titled "hit 36%," while its rules use "equal to or below," and the evidence does not settle how that wording applies. The Kalshi event may close early if polling data for the period is released, and no listed end time for the event is supplied [1]. The evidence contains no resolution outcome for either event.
References
- Kalshi: How low will Trump's approval rating get before 2027?. Provider data observed 2026-11-07T09:00:06.323Z.
- Polymarket: How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-11-07T09:00:06.323Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 7, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract family asks how low Donald Trump's approval rating will fall during 2026, as measured by two different sources. Kalshi lists a set of threshold markets tied to the average approval rating reported by VoteHub for the period from December 11, 2025 to December 31, 2026. Under that rule, a threshold market resolves to Yes if the average falls below the stated figure, and the threshold only needs to be met once during the period to satisfy the payout criterion [1]. The Kalshi event also states that it will close and expire early if polling data for the specified period is released [1]. Polymarket's version of the question uses a different measure. It resolves to Yes if Trump's approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value on any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026, and it specifies that the green trend line for the resolution date is the figure to use [2]. The rules say that changes in Silver Bulletin's methodology will not affect resolution. If Silver Bulletin becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used instead [2]. Because each approval value must be finalized before it counts, the rules also say that if the December 31 value is not published by January 4, 2027 at 12:00 PM ET, the market resolves according to the earlier data points [2]. The two events therefore differ in more than platform. They use different aggregators, different date windows, and different resolution mechanics, so a Kalshi threshold and a Polymarket threshold at the same number do not measure the same thing. Price differences between them should not be treated as an arbitrage opportunity without checking those rule differences. The saved market data is a snapshot taken at an observation time of 2026-11-07T09:00:06Z, and the sample records 7 Kalshi markets and 6 Polymarket markets, all of which were included. Those prices are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. For example, one Kalshi threshold market for an average below 35% was priced at 0.355 for Yes, while the Polymarket market for a rating of 35% or below in 2026 was priced at 0.31 for Yes [1][2]. These are snapshot values from a past observation time and should not be read as current prices.
Historical Context
The Wikipedia excerpt states that Trump served as the 45th president from 2017 to 2021, lost re-election to Joe Biden in 2020, and won against Kamala Harris in 2024 before beginning his second tenure as the 47th president on January 20, 2025 [3]. The excerpt also notes that Trump is the second former U.S. president to return to office [3]. This is historical background about his terms. It does not establish what his approval rating is at any particular time.
Why It Matters
These contracts measure whether an approval rating series crosses a stated threshold during a fixed window in 2026. A Yes outcome depends on the exact aggregator named in each rulebook, so the same question can resolve differently depending on which source is used [1][2]. Kalshi's threshold markets use an average over the full period, while Polymarket's use any single qualifying date in the year, which means the same nominal threshold can be reached under one rule and not the other [1][2]. Readers should check the rule text for the specific market they are reading before comparing prices.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-07 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi and Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What must happen for a Kalshi threshold market to resolve Yes?
The average approval rating reported by VoteHub for December 11, 2025 to December 31, 2026 must be below the threshold stated in the market. The threshold only needs to be met once during the period [1].
Which source does the Polymarket approval market use?
The market uses the approval rating from Silver Bulletin, specifically the green trend line for the resolution date. If Silver Bulletin becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used [2].
What happens if the December 31 approval value is not published in time?
The Polymarket rules say that if the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027 at 12:00 PM ET, the market resolves according to all previous datapoints [2].
Do changes to Silver Bulletin's methodology affect the Polymarket resolution?
The rules state that changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of the market [2].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
