Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsPolitics

How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

Name: How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
End: 2027-01-04T17:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$418.08K

Events

Markets

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How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

Vol

$418.08K

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $163.89K

Kalshi

markets · $254.20K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $418.08K

39%

61%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

10 markets tracked

Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 36% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 36% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?	Kalshi	82%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 36% in 2026?	Poly	67%
Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 35% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?	Kalshi	38%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	Poly	31%
Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 34% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?	Kalshi	17%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 34% in 2026?	Poly	11%
Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 33% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?	Kalshi	9%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 30% in 2026?	Poly	5%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 25% in 2026?	Poly	4%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 20% in 2026?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

82%

Top Probability

$418.08K

Volume

Markets

16.4%

Price Gap

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggr

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How low will Trump's approval rating get before 2027?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Dec 2025 to Dec 2026

If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is below X then the market resolves to Yes. In order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period. This market will close and expire early if polling data for the specified time period is released.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is below 36%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: In order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period. Early close condition: This market will close "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $396.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $19.9K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 19.86)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (6 mkts) vs Kalshi (4 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 36% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $84.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 82.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 18.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 35% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $64.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 37.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 34% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $39.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 33% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $66.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.8% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 4, 2027): Vol $117.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 31.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Trump's approval rating hit 30% in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 4, 2027): Vol $16.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Trump's approval rating hit 25% in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 4, 2027): Vol $4.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Trump's approval rating hit 20% in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 4, 2027): Vol $3.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.9% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Trump's approval rating hit 34% in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $125
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Trump's approval rating hit 36% in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $570
  DATA: [Yes: 67.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 33.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

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KALSHIPolitics

How low will Trump's approval rating get before 2027?

Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is below X then the market resolves to Yes. In order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period. This market will close and expire early if polling data for the specified time period is released.

Volume$254.20K

Markets4

POLYMARKETPolitics

How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

Volume$163.89K

Markets6

10 of 10

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KALSHI

Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 36% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 82.0¢No 18.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 36% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?

If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is below 36%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: In order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period. Early close condition: This market will close

POLYMARKET

Will Trump's approval rating hit 36% in 2026?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 67.0¢No 33.0¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Trump's approval rating hit 36% in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finali

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Jan 04, 2027, 5:00 PM UTC

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