Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHISports

Los Angeles D vs Milwaukee: Home Runs

Total Volume

$1.16M

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Los Angeles D vs Milwaukee: Home Runs

Vol

$1.16M

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $1.16M

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.16M

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

30 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

William Contreras: 1+ home runs?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(30)

Market	Platform	Price
William Contreras: 1+ home runs?	Kalshi	100%
Max Muncy (LAD): 1+ home runs?	Kalshi	6%
Shohei Ohtani: 1+ home runs?	Kalshi	6%
Freddie Freeman: 1+ home runs?	Kalshi	6%
Will Smith: 1+ home runs?	Kalshi	4%
Jackson Chourio: 1+ home runs?	Kalshi	4%
Teoscar Hernández: 1+ home runs?	Kalshi	3%
Freddie Freeman: 2+ home runs?	Kalshi	3%
Jake Bauers: 1+ home runs?	Kalshi	3%
David Hamilton: 1+ home runs?	Kalshi	3%
William Contreras: 2+ home runs?	Kalshi	3%
Kyle Tucker: 1+ home runs?	Kalshi	2%
Garrett Mitchell: 1+ home runs?	Kalshi	2%
Brice Turang: 1+ home runs?	Kalshi	2%
Mookie Betts: 1+ home runs?	Kalshi	2%
Max Muncy (LAD): 2+ home runs?	Kalshi	1%
Andy Pages: 1+ home runs?	Kalshi	1%
Will Smith: 2+ home runs?	Kalshi	1%
Tommy Edman: 2+ home runs?	Kalshi	1%
Tommy Edman: 1+ home runs?	Kalshi	1%
Teoscar Hernández: 2+ home runs?	Kalshi	1%
Sal Frelick: 1+ home runs?	Kalshi	1%
Kyle Tucker: 2+ home runs?	Kalshi	1%
Jake Bauers: 2+ home runs?	Kalshi	1%
Cooper Pratt: 1+ home runs?	Kalshi	1%
Christian Yelich: 1+ home runs?	Kalshi	1%
Jackson Chourio: 2+ home runs?	Kalshi	1%
Shohei Ohtani: 2+ home runs?	Kalshi	1%
Mookie Betts: 2+ home runs?	Kalshi	1%
Andy Pages: 2+ home runs?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

100%

Top Probability

$1.16M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

LAD vs MIL (Oct 12) If Will Smith records X home runs in Los Angeles D vs Milwaukee professional baseball game originally scheduled for Oct 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. Player Participation & Settlement Criteria If Will Smith is scratched or not included in the starting lineup, the market will resolve to the fair market price. If Will Smith starts the game but does not record a plate appearance, the market will resolve to the fair market price. If Will Smith is not

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Los Angeles D vs Milwaukee: Home Runs
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** LAD vs MIL (Oct 12)

If Will Smith records X home runs in Los Angeles D vs Milwaukee professional baseball game originally scheduled for Oct 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. Player Participation & Settlement Criteria If Will Smith is scratched or not included in the starting lineup, the market will resolve to the fair market price. If Will Smith starts the game but does not record a plate appearance, the market will resolve to the fair market price. If Will Smith is not 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Will Smith records 2+ home runs in Los Angeles D vs Milwaukee professional baseball game originally scheduled for Oct 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Player Participation & Settlement Criteria
If Will Smith is scratched or not included in the starting li"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.16M
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Smith: 2+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Smith: 1+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $38.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Tommy Edman: 2+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Tommy Edman: 1+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $16.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Teoscar Hernández: 2+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $841
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Teoscar Hernández: 1+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $41.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Sal Frelick: 1+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $22.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Max Muncy (LAD): 2+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Max Muncy (LAD): 1+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $81.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Kyle Tucker: 2+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $14.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Kyle Tucker: 1+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $56.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Jake Bauers: 2+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $970
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Jake Bauers: 1+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $24.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Garrett Mitchell: 1+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $10.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. David Hamilton: 1+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Cooper Pratt: 1+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $10.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Christian Yelich: 1+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $61.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. William Contreras: 2+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $34.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. William Contreras: 1+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $71.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 20. Jackson Chourio: 2+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Jackson Chourio: 1+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $89.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 22. Brice Turang: 1+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $47.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 23. Shohei Ohtani: 2+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $53.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 24. Shohei Ohtani: 1+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $214.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 25. Mookie Betts: 2+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 26. Mookie Betts: 1+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $60.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 27. Freddie Freeman: 2+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 28. Freddie Freeman: 1+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $135.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 29. Andy Pages: 2+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 30. Andy Pages: 1+ home runs?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $53.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHISports

Los Angeles D vs Milwaukee: Home Runs

Volume$1.16M

Markets30

30 of 30

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KALSHI

William Contreras: 1+ home runs?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIWorld

CLOSING SOON

William Contreras: 1+ home runs?

If William Contreras records 1+ home runs in Los Angeles D vs Milwaukee professional baseball game originally scheduled for Oct 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Player Participation & Settlement Criteria If William Contreras is scratched or not included in t

KALSHI

Max Muncy (LAD): 1+ home runs?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 5.5¢No 94.5¢

KALSHIWorld

CLOSING SOON

Max Muncy (LAD): 1+ home runs?

If Max Muncy (LAD) records 1+ home runs in Los Angeles D vs Milwaukee professional baseball game originally scheduled for Oct 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Player Participation & Settlement Criteria If Max Muncy (LAD) is scratched or not included in the s

KALSHI

Shohei Ohtani: 1+ home runs?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 5.5¢No 94.5¢

KALSHIWorld

CLOSING SOON

Shohei Ohtani: 1+ home runs?

If Shohei Ohtani records 1+ home runs in Los Angeles D vs Milwaukee professional baseball game originally scheduled for Oct 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Player Participation & Settlement Criteria If Shohei Ohtani is scratched or not included in the start

KALSHI

Freddie Freeman: 1+ home runs?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 5.5¢No 94.5¢

KALSHIWorld

CLOSING SOON

Freddie Freeman: 1+ home runs?

If Freddie Freeman records 1+ home runs in Los Angeles D vs Milwaukee professional baseball game originally scheduled for Oct 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Player Participation & Settlement Criteria If Freddie Freeman is scratched or not included in the s

KALSHI

Will Smith: 1+ home runs?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢

KALSHIWorld

CLOSING SOON

Will Smith: 1+ home runs?

If Will Smith records 1+ home runs in Los Angeles D vs Milwaukee professional baseball game originally scheduled for Oct 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Player Participation & Settlement Criteria If Will Smith is scratched or not included in the starting li

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5¢

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Los Angeles D vs Milwaukee: Home Runs

Los Angeles D vs Milwaukee: Home Runs

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William Contreras: 1+ home runs?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Los Angeles D vs Milwaukee: Home Runs

Markets (30)

William Contreras: 1+ home runs?

William Contreras: 1+ home runs?

Max Muncy (LAD): 1+ home runs?

Max Muncy (LAD): 1+ home runs?

Shohei Ohtani: 1+ home runs?

Shohei Ohtani: 1+ home runs?

Freddie Freeman: 1+ home runs?

Freddie Freeman: 1+ home runs?

Will Smith: 1+ home runs?

Will Smith: 1+ home runs?

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William Contreras: 1+ home runs?

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Los Angeles D vs Milwaukee: Home Runs

William Contreras: 1+ home runs?

William Contreras: 1+ home runs?

Max Muncy (LAD): 1+ home runs?

Max Muncy (LAD): 1+ home runs?

Shohei Ohtani: 1+ home runs?

Shohei Ohtani: 1+ home runs?

Freddie Freeman: 1+ home runs?

Freddie Freeman: 1+ home runs?

Will Smith: 1+ home runs?

Will Smith: 1+ home runs?

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