Name: Will S&P 500 ETF (SPY) hit __ in April?
End: 2026-05-01T03:59:59.999Z

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Will S&P 500 ETF (SPY) hit __ in April? | PredictPedia

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7 markets tracked

Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (HIGH) $720 in April?

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (HIGH) $720 in April?	Poly	49%
Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $630 in April?	Poly	48%
Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $640 in April?	Poly	24%
Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $610 in April?	Poly	13%
Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $600 in April?	Poly	8%
Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $590 in April?	Poly	4%
Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $620 in April?	Poly	2%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, April 18, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will S&P 500 ETF (SPY) hit __ in April?
**Category:** Finance | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 1, 2026 (13 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** What will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit in April 2026?

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during April 2026, any 1-minute candle for SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary e"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $6.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.2K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 5.49)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (HIGH) $720 in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $64
  DATA: [Yes: 49.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $640 in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $630 in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $276
  DATA: [Yes: 48.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $620 in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.2% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $610 in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $646
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $600 in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $353
  DATA: [Yes: 7.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.3% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $590 in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $488
  DATA: [Yes: 3.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.1% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

12d 16h remaining

May 01, 2026 3:59 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

21¢

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Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (HIGH) $720 in April?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Will S&P 500 ETF (SPY) hit __ in April?

Markets (7)

Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (HIGH) $720 in April?

Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (HIGH) $720 in April?

Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $630 in April?

Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $630 in April?

Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $640 in April?

Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $640 in April?

Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $610 in April?

Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $610 in April?

Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $600 in April?

Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $600 in April?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (HIGH) $720 in April?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Will S&P 500 ETF (SPY) hit __ in April?

Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (HIGH) $720 in April?

Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (HIGH) $720 in April?

Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $630 in April?

Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $630 in April?

Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $640 in April?

Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $640 in April?

Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $610 in April?

Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $610 in April?

Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $600 in April?

Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $600 in April?

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Discussion

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