This prediction market topic concerns whether any candidate will win outright in the first round of Costa Rica's 2026 presidential election. Costa Rica uses a two-round system for presidential elections. To win in the first round, a candidate must receive more than 40% of the valid votes. If no candidate reaches this threshold, a second round is held between the top two finishers. The market resolves to 'Yes' if any candidate secures over 40% in the initial vote on February 1, 2026, eliminating the need for a runoff. The question is significant because Costa Rica has not seen a first-round presidential victory since 2002, making the 2026 election a potential break from a two-decade pattern of runoffs. Recent elections have been highly competitive, with the leading candidate in the first round typically receiving between 25% and 35% of the vote. Interest in this market stems from analyzing whether political fragmentation, voter turnout trends, or the emergence of a dominant candidate could alter this established dynamic. Observers monitor pre-election polling and coalition-building efforts for signs a candidate might consolidate enough support to cross the 40% threshold.

Historical Context

Costa Rica's current two-round presidential election system was established by constitutional reform in 1969. The requirement for a first-round victory was originally set at more than 40% of valid votes. This system was designed to ensure the president has a broad mandate in a multi-party democracy. The last candidate to win outright in the first round was Abel Pacheco of the Social Christian Unity Party (PUSC) in 2002, who received 38.5% of valid votes but was declared the winner because the second-place finisher withdrew before the runoff, a unique circumstance. Since then, every presidential election has proceeded to a second round. The 2014, 2018, and 2022 elections all featured first-round winners with less than 31% of the vote, reflecting significant political fragmentation. The 2022 election saw Rodrigo Chaves win the presidency in the second round after placing first in the initial round with just 16.8% of valid votes, the lowest first-place percentage in the country's history under the two-round system. This trend of declining first-round vote shares for the frontrunner makes a return to a 40%+ victory a notable historical departure.

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