Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?

Name: How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
End: 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$11.29K

Events

Markets

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How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?

Vol

$11.29K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $11.29K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $11.29K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.18% in October?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.18% in October?	Poly	74%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.15% in October?	Poly	66%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.12% in October?	Poly	45%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.09% in October?	Poly	36%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% in October?	Poly	24%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% in October?	Poly	17%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.00% in October?	Poly	15%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.90% in October?	Poly	11%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.85% in October?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

74%

Top Probability

$11.29K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 1, 2026 (21 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or onc"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $11.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.0K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 5.76)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.18% in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 74.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 26.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.15% in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 66.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 34.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.12% in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 45.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.09% in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 36.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $342
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.00% in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $418
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.90% in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $500
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.85% in October?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.4% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy