Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

Each market in this sample asks whether a single named team will reach the semifinal round of the 2026 College Football Playoff. The source defines the semifinal round as "the round of the 12-team College Football Playoff for the 2026 season in which four teams remain (the winners of the four quarterfinal games)" [1]. A team counts only if it "is scheduled to play in a semifinal game by winning its quarterfinal game" [1].

The rules also set a deadline. The market resolves "No" if the playoff is canceled or "if the semifinal round is not played by January 28, 2027 11:59 PM ET" [1]. The primary resolution source is official College Football Playoff information, though "a consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1]. This deadline is a contract rule, not an announced playoff date.

Reading the snapshot

The sample was observed at 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z and retrieved at 2026-10-16T03:27:30.771Z. These are snapshot times. The prices below describe that moment only and are not current quotes or verified probabilities.

The sample includes 12 of 50 markets from one provider event. Within this sample, the highest Yes prices are Ohio State at 0.565, Georgia at 0.555, and Notre Dame at 0.505. The lowest included Yes price is LSU at 0.145. The source states that the sample is partial, so the 38 omitted markets are not described here, and no conclusion should be drawn about their prices.

Listed end times differ across rows. Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Miami (OH) show an end time of 2027-01-29T04:59:00.000Z, while the other nine included markets show no end date. Because of this, closing times cannot be compared across the full sample from the supplied data. Wording is also consistent across the included rows, so differences in resolution language are not a factor here.

The supplied data does not include volume or trader counts, so this snapshot says nothing about liquidity or how many participants hold each view.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not explain why any price is where it is, and it does not describe recent events affecting these teams. It contains no information on the accuracy of prices as forecasts. Because the sample is partial and the snapshot is time-limited, these prices should be read as a record of one retrieval, not a complete or current picture of the field. Price differences between markets do not on their own indicate a trading opportunity, since each contract has its own rules and close times.

References

1. Polymarket: NCAA Football: CFB Playoffs team to make Semis. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z.